中国农业科技导报2026，Vol.28Issue(8)：200-213,14.DOI:10.13304/j.nykjdb.2025.0232
东北三省主要作物种植结构时空演变规律及驱动机制
Spatial and Temporal Evolution Law and Driving Mechanism of Major Crop Planting Structure in 3 Northeastern Provinces
摘要
Abstract
In order to explore the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of major crop planting structures in 3 northeastern provinces and to analyze the driving mechanisms behind their evolution,methods such as mathematical statistics were employed.The combination types of planting proportions for rice,maize and soybean were determined at both the county scale and the small watershed scale.Standard deviation ellipse analysis was conducted using ArcGIS,while transition matrices were applied to quantify the annual changes in planting areas.Spatial analysis methods were further employed to investigate the spatial distribution characteristics of different planting types.Finally,in combination with the geographical detector,the driving mechanisms underlying the spatial-temporal evolution patterns were revealed.The results showed that the total planting area of rice,corn and soybean generally showed a steady growth trend,among which the proportion of corn planting area was the highest.By dividing the planting structure into 10 types at both the county and small watershed scales,it was found that the small watershed scale provided more refined classification results.3 crops showed spatial differentiation in their distribution.The digital elevation model values of rice,maize and soybean increased in sequence,and those at the small watershed scale were lower than that at the county scale.The temperature of soybean,rice and maize increased in sequence,and at the small watershed scale the temperatures of all 3 crops were higher than that at the county scale.The planting structures differed significantly across scales.Rice showed stable expansion at the pixel scale,the strongest orientation at the county scale,and the most concentrated planting center at the small watershed scale.Maize showed the most pronounced orientation at the county scale,and soybean exhibited the greatest variation in orientation across scales.The planting area transfer between soybean and maize was the largest,reaching up to 476.14×104 hm2.Among natural factors,the digital elevation model had significant influence on the evolution of planting structure,while policy and economic factors also contributed to changes in planting structure to some extent,such as the predominance of single-maize types in areas with higher levels of agricultural mechanization.Above results provided theoretical reference for optimizing the crop planting structure and improving the stability of grain production in the 3 northeastern provinces.关键词
东北三省/种植结构/时空演变/地理探测器/小流域Key words
the northeast three provinces/planting structure/spatial-temporal evolution/geodetector/small watershed分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
马菁芸,程彬,孟令华,戴喜龙,王一昊,刘焕军..东北三省主要作物种植结构时空演变规律及驱动机制[J].中国农业科技导报,2026,28(8):200-213,14.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1500100). （2021YFD1500100）
