中国地质灾害与防治学报2026，Vol.37Issue(4)：41-53,13.DOI:10.16031/j.cghc.202606015
区域群发性滑坡危险性评价的累计降雨与短时雨强特征研究
Research on the cumulative rainfall and short-term rain intensity characteristics of regional cluster-type landslide hazard assessment:A case study of Zixing,Hunan Province
摘要
Abstract
In July 2024,Typhoon Gaemi triggered extreme rainfall in Zixing City,Hunan Province,China,causing numerous landslides.Accurate assessment of rainfall-induced clustered landslide hazards is important for regional disaster prevention,mitigation,and urban planning.Using this clustered landslide event as a case study,this study investigates the role of cumulative rainfall and short-term rainfall intensity in landslide hazard assessment.Based on a high-quality landslide inventory,rainfall data,and topographic and geological environmental factors,an assessment index system was established by incorporating cumulative rainfall and maximum hourly rainfall intensity.A random forest model was used for landslide hazard assessment,and feature-importance analysis and shapley additive explanations(SHAP)were used to quantify and interpret factor contributions.The random forest model showed good discriminative ability,with AUC values of 0.923 and 0.854 for the training and testing datasets,respectively.Landslide hazard in the study area exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity.Low and moderate hazard zones were mainly distributed around the periphery of the study area,whereas high and very high hazard zones were concentrated in the central part and accounted for 15.2%of the total area.Landslide density in the very high hazard zone reached 99.53 landslides/km2.Hazard distribution differed markedly among towns,with the western part of Bamianshan Yaozu Township identified as the most concentrated high-hazard area.Feature-importance and SHAP analyses showed that maximum hourly rainfall intensity and cumulative rainfall were the dominant controls on landslide occurrence,while topographic and geomorphological conditions provided the fundamental environmental setting.Cumulative rainfall and short-term rainfall intensity effectively characterize the triggering effects of extreme rainfall events on clustered landslides,and the random forest model can identify high-hazard landslide areas.The results provide a useful reference for landslide hazard identification and geohazard prevention under intense rainfall conditions.关键词
降雨滑坡/危险性评价/累计降雨量/短时雨强/随机森林/资兴市Key words
rainfall-induced landslides/landslide hazard assessment/cumulative rainfall/short-term rainfall intensity/random forest/Zixing City分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李涛,刘毅,赵斌滨,郭威,孔小昂,刘汉星,王秀龙,黄远东,许冲,陈兆宁,梁家荣,金嘉乐,高诗琪..区域群发性滑坡危险性评价的累计降雨与短时雨强特征研究[J].中国地质灾害与防治学报,2026,37(4):41-53,13.基金项目
国家电网公司总部科技项目(5500-202455159A-1-1-ZN) （5500-202455159A-1-1-ZN）
