浙江农业学报2026，Vol.38Issue(7)：1355-1365,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1004-1524.20250693
西蓝花现蕾期模拟模型的构建与验证
Construction and validation of a simulation model for the floral initiation stage of Brassica ol-eracea var.italica
摘要
Abstract
The floral initiation stage of broccoli significantly impacts yield,quality formation,cropping sequence and sowing date management.To accurately predict the time required from transplanting to floral initiation for different broccoli varieties,this study constructed a temperature-and photoperiod-based simulation model of the broccoli floral initiation stage using multi-year meteorological data from two experimental sites in Jiaojiang and Sanmen,Zhejiang Province,together with observational data on the transplanting and floral initiation dates of different varieties.Key parameters and their interactions were identified through Sobol sensitivity analysis,and the potential heat unit re-quired from transplanting to floral initiation(Gv),temperature sensitivity(ST),optimum temperature(To)and photoperiod sensitivity(G)were optimized using a grid search and alternating iteration strategy.Data from the Jiao-jiang site were used for parameter calibration,and data from the Sanmen site were used for model validation.The re-sults showed significant differences among varieties in sensitivity to temperature and photoperiod.The average root mean square error of the model was 2.78 d in calibration and 1.33 d in validation,indicating that the model could simulate the floral initiation stage of broccoli with acceptable accuracy and provide a theoretical basis for new variety breeding,production management optimization and regional adaptability assessment.关键词
西蓝花/现蕾期/温度/光周期/模拟模型Key words
broccoli(Brassica oleracea var.italica)/floral initiation/temperature/photoperiod/simulation model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
冯玥,何卫军,曹静,孙挺,顾宏辉,陈君,吴其褒,张文宇,吴早贵..西蓝花现蕾期模拟模型的构建与验证[J].浙江农业学报,2026,38(7):1355-1365,11.基金项目
农业农村部国家西蓝花育种联合攻关(2018-2026) （2018-2026）
浙江省农业(蔬菜)新品种选育重大科技专项(2021C02065-4-1) （蔬菜）
