中国水土保持科学2026，Vol.24Issue(4)：22-34,13.DOI:10.16843/j.sswc.2025216
基于多模型的雅鲁藏布江流域降雨侵蚀力时空特征
Spatiotemporal characteristics of rainfall erosivity in Yarlung Zangbo River Basin based on multiple models
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The Yarlung Zangbo River Basin is a typical alpine ecologically fragile region,where complex climatic differentiation poses higher requirements for the selection of rainfall erosivity(R)models.Therefore,evaluating the applicability and differences among simplified R models is essential for accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal variation of rainfall erosivity and for supporting appropriate model selection in this region.[Methods]Daily rainfall data from 25 meteorological stations across the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin from 1980 to 2020 were used as input for nine typical simplified models(A-I)to calculate R values.Model differences and their performance at stations across climatic zones were evaluated using the Mann-Kendall test,Sen's slope estimator,and hierarchical clustering analysis.[Results]1)The multi-year average R values estimated by the nine models varied substantially,ranging from 101 to 1 677 MJ·mm/(hm2·h).Models B,C,and E generally produced higher estimates than models D,F,and G,while model I showed no outliers at stations across all climatic zones.2)All models exhibited consistent directions of interannual variations in R and detected highly significant abrupt change points around 2005(P<0.01).Most stations showed increasing trends,but the magnitudes of the estimated trends varied markedly among models.3)The models were clustered into three groups:Group 1(A,B,C,E,F,G),Group 2(D),and Group 3(H,I).The sensitivity to climate variability was ranked as Group 3(highest)>Group 1>Group 2(lowest),with particularly pronounced differences in semi-arid and semi-humid zones(P<0.01).[Conclusions]The findings demonstrate that simplified rainfall erosivity models differ significantly in estimating absolute values,variation amplitudes,and local trends of R.This study evaluates the model applicability and provides a scientific basis for selecting appropriate rainfall erosivity models for soil-erosion assessment in the cold,high-altitude and ecologically fragile areas of the Yarlung Zangbo River Basin.关键词
降雨侵蚀力/模型/时空特征/聚类分析/雅鲁藏布江流域Key words
rainfall erosivity/model/spatiotemporal characteristics/cluster analysis/Yarlung Zangbo River Basin分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
但姝仪,张会兰,孙嘉宁,吕春汐,王天赫,黄灿..基于多模型的雅鲁藏布江流域降雨侵蚀力时空特征[J].中国水土保持科学,2026,24(4):22-34,13.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目"植被结构影响下的坡面流挟沙力动力机制研究"(52279056) National Natural Science Foundation of China(NSFC)General Program"Research on the Dynamic Mechanism of Slope Flow Sand-Carrying Force under the Influence of Vegetation Structure"(52279056) （52279056）
