干旱区地理2026，Vol.49Issue(9)：1815-1825,11.DOI:10.12118/j.issn.1000-6060.2025.685
黄河流域农作物受灾时空演变特征及致灾因子
Spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and disaster-inducing factors of crop disasters in the Yellow River Basin
摘要
Abstract
The Yellow River Basin,a region in China acutely vulnerable to ecological damage and prone to agri-cultural disasters,faces significant challenges from crop failures that threaten both food security and economic de-velopment.This study analyzes crop disaster rate data from nine provinces(autonomous regions)in the Yellow River Basin from 2003 to 2023.The study utilizes a comprehensive methodology,including a center-of-gravity migration-standard deviational ellipse,kernel density estimation,the Dagum Gini coefficient,and the geographi-cally and temporally weighted regression model to investigate the spatiotemporal evolution and underlying causes of these disasters.The results revealed the following:(1)The Yellow River Basin experienced an overall decline in its crop disaster rate.(2)The crop disaster rate consistently remained highest in the upper and middle reaches,indicating that these areas bear the brunt of crop disasters.Kernel density estimation further revealed in-tensifying disparities within the upper reaches,significant internal disparities in the middle reaches,and a polar-ization phenomenon in the lower reaches.The Dagum Gini coefficient indicated significant overall disparities in the crop disaster rate,primarily driven by differences between regions.(3)The main factors influencing the crop disaster rate in the Yellow River Basin are annual average precipitation,forest coverage,and slope.Slope general-ly has a positive effect,whereas annual average precipitation and forest coverage have negative effects.These findings offer a scientific basis for developing precise disaster prevention and mitigation strategies,optimizing ag-ricultural planning,and ensuring food security in the Yellow River Basin.This will contribute to achieving ecolog-ical protection and high-quality development goals in the region.关键词
农作物受灾率/时空演变/致灾因子/GTWR模型/黄河流域Key words
crop disaster rate/spatiotemporal evolution/disaster-inducing factors/GTWR model/Yellow River Basin引用本文复制引用
李晓鹏,贾富贵,雷双,李康..黄河流域农作物受灾时空演变特征及致灾因子[J].干旱区地理,2026,49(9):1815-1825,11.基金项目
甘肃省高校青年博士支持项目(2025QB-055) （2025QB-055）
兰州财经大学2025年数字化赋能交叉融合本科课程建设 （）
兰州财经大学2025年度高等教育研究项目(LJY202513) （LJY202513）
兰州财经大学科研专项经费资助 （）
