甘肃医药2026，Vol.45Issue(5)：413-418,427,7.DOI:10.15975/j.cnki.1004-2725.2026.05.006
基于全球视角归因于室内空气污染COPD疾病负担的趋势分析及预测
Trends and projections of COPD disease burden attributable to household air pollution from a global perspective
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To analyze the burden and temporal trends of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)attributable to house-hold air pollution(HAP)globally and in China from 1990 to 2023.Methods:Data were extracted from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2023(GBD 2023).Indicators including number of deaths,disability-adjusted life years(DALYs),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR),and average annual percent change(AAPC)were used to characterize the burden and trends of HAP-attributable COPD in China over the study period.A Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)model was employed to forecast the future burden of HAP-attributable COPD in China.Results:In 2023,the ASMR and ASDR of HAP-attributable COPD in China were 1.55 per 100,000 population and 25.71 per 100,000 population,respectively,both lower than the global averages.From 1990 to 2023,both the ASMR and AS-DR of HAP-attributable COPD in China exhibited a declining trend,with AAPCs of-9.03%(95%CI:-10.11%to-9.07%)and-9.76%(95%CI:-10.28%to-9.24%),respectively.The magnitude of decline in China outperformed the global trend.Disease burden increased with advancing age,and females in China bore a heavier burden of HAP-attributable COPD than males.Projections from the BAPC model indicat-ed that the global and Chinese burden of HAP-attributable COPD would continue to decrease from 2024 to 2035.Globally,the ASMR was projected to drop from 10.98 per 100,000 in 2024 to 7.20 per 100,000 in 2035,and the ASDR was expected to decline from 244.73 per 100,000 to 174.55 per 100,000 over the same period.In China,the ASMR was forecasted to decrease from 2.82 per 100,000 in 2024 to 0.70 per 100,000 in 2035,while the ASDR was predicted to fall from 43.83 per 100,000 to 11.61 per 100,000.Conclusion:The global and Chinese burden of HAP-attributable COPD showed a downward trend from 1990 to 2023,and this declining trajectory is expected to persist from 2024 to 2035.Females and the elderly population in China represent the key groups bearing the brunt of this disease burden,and target-ed interventions should be implemented to mitigate their risk.关键词
慢性阻塞性肺疾病/空气污染/死亡率/伤残调整寿命年/疾病负担Key words
chronic obstructive pulmonary dis ease/household air pollution/mortality rate/disability-adjusted life years/disease burden分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
靳丽娟,任琰杰,刘婷婷,郑嘉沁,曹玉青..基于全球视角归因于室内空气污染COPD疾病负担的趋势分析及预测[J].甘肃医药,2026,45(5):413-418,427,7.基金项目
1.河西学院校长基金青年科研项目(编号:QN2024040) （编号:QN2024040）
2.甘肃省教育厅创新基金项目(编号:2023B-179) （编号:2023B-179）
3.国家大学生创新计划项目(编号:202410740007) （编号:202410740007）
4.2025年度张掖市市级科技计划项目(编号:ZY2025BJ62) （编号:ZY2025BJ62）
