健康教育与健康促进2026，Vol.21Issue(4)：353-356,4.DOI:10.16117/j.cnki.31-1974/r.202604353
社区慢阻肺筛查风险预测模型的构建
Construction of a Risk Prediction Model for Community Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease Screening
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct a community COPD risk prediction for early identification of high-risk patients and to provide a reference for early prevention of COPD in the future.Methods Based on the epidemiological survey of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in a suburban area of Shanghai in 2021,a logstic regression model was applied to establish a COPD risk prediction model.The model's ability to distinguish and warn was measured by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.Results Age,educational level,body mass index,history of respiratory diseases,active smoking,and occupational exposure were the influencing factors of the COPD disease model(all P＜0.05).Thus,the risk prediction model formula was established.The model showed:the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.674,the sensitivity was 66%,and the specificity was 60.7%,and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showed P=0.570.Conclusion The constructed model has a good predictive effect.Compared with the gold standard for screening patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease,the risk factor based prediction model for screening asymptomatic patients is simple,easy,and economical,and can be used as the first-line method for screening the population of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.关键词
慢阻肺/筛查/风险预测模型Key words
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/Screening/Risk prediction model引用本文复制引用
陆燕,马丽,向芳..社区慢阻肺筛查风险预测模型的构建[J].健康教育与健康促进,2026,21(4):353-356,4.基金项目
1.上海市嘉定区2022-2024年公共卫生优秀人才培养项目——重点学科方向(JDKE-2022-0048) （JDKE-2022-0048）
2.上海市嘉定区公共卫生高质量发展重点学科项目——慢性病流行病学(GWGZLXK-2023-02). （GWGZLXK-2023-02）
