能源研究与管理2026，Vol.18Issue(3)：71-77,7.DOI:10.16056/j.2096-7705.2026.03.008
"双碳"驱动下绿氨燃料从生产到应用的成本与降碳收益评价
Evaluation of the Cost and Carbon Reduction Benefits of Green Ammonia Fuel from Production to Application Driven by"Dual Carbon"
摘要
Abstract
To facilitate the implementation of the"dual carbon"goals,explore the market application potential and low-carbon benefits of green ammonia as a new type of clean energy fuel,and conduct a study on the cost and carbon reduction benefits assessment from the production to the application of green ammonia fuel.Focusing on the entire process of green ammonia production through water electrolysis,synthesis,storage and transportation,as well as its combustion applications,with carbon pricing and electricity pricing as the core variables,we quantify the costs and carbon reduction benefits of green ammonia fuel under different scenarios,and complete a comprehensive economic evaluation of green ammonia fuel.The results indicate that,based on the carbon price at the end of 2024,when the electricity price is below 0.10 yuan/(kW·h),the cost of green ammonia can be on par with that of gray ammonia.When it drops below 0.08 yuan/(kW·h),it can become more competitive than natural gas.However,if the grid electricity price is set at 0.60 yuan/(kW·h),green ammonia will still not be competitive even by 2050.The coupled effect of carbon price fluctuations and carbon emission intensity has significantly reshaped the economic landscape of ammonia fuel applications.The northwest electricity curtailment production model,leveraging its advantages of low-cost green electricity and low emissions,has already demonstrated carbon emission reduction benefits in 2020.Its cost advantage is expected to continue to increase in 2030,and it is projected that by 2050,carbon revenues will fully cover production,storage,and transportation costs.In summary,as the cost of wind and solar renewable energy generation continues to decline,green ammonia possesses excellent low-carbon economic benefits and broad application prospects,making it a viable clean energy alternative to important fossil fuels.关键词
绿氨/燃料/成本/降碳收益Key words
green ammonia/fuel/cost/carbon reduction benefits分类
能源科技引用本文复制引用
韦利云,毕浩波.."双碳"驱动下绿氨燃料从生产到应用的成本与降碳收益评价[J].能源研究与管理,2026,18(3):71-77,7.基金项目
江苏省自然科学基金青年基金项目(BK20250619) （BK20250619）
2025年安徽省社科界青年学人成长计划项目(QNXR2025044) （QNXR2025044）
滁州职业技术学院人文社科研究一般项目(SKY-2025-6) （SKY-2025-6）
江苏省高等学校基础科学(自然科学)研究项目(25KJB480008) （自然科学）
