信息工程大学学报2026，Vol.27Issue(4)：399-405,421,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1671-0673.2026.04.003
基于因果发现与博弈协同的航运韧性调度方法
Maritime Resilient Scheduling Method Based on Causal Discovery and Game-Theoretic Collaboration
摘要
Abstract
Existing centralized maritime scheduling relies heavily on predefined event schemas,which limits its capability to address multi-party gaming behaviors and unforeseen"Black Swan"events.To address these limitations,an emergency decision-making framework based on distributed causal dis-covery and collaborative game theory(CIRCE)is proposed to improve the adaptive resilience of mari-time networks under complex disturbances.Firstly,an improved online PCMCI algorithm is utilized to empower vessel agents to dynamically infer local risk causal graphs from time-series data.Secondly,a lightweight causal belief communication protocol is designed to facilitate the dynamic alignment of dis-tributed cognitive states.Finally,a non-cooperative game model based on the Schelling Point is devel-oped,allowing rapid formation of coordinated strategies,including collaborative speed reduction,route avoidance,virtual port arrival,and relay transportation,to maximize collective benefits without central-ized directives.Digital twin simulations based on real-world Typhoon"In-Fa"meteorological fields and automatic identification system(AIS)data demonstrate that the proposed method enables dynamic perception and coordinated response to unknown risks through a distributed causal mechanism,over-coming the reliance on centralized pre-defined maps inherent in traditional methods.It significantly en-hances vessel safety margins,reduces additional operational costs,and provides a novel pathway for de-veloping highly resilient intelligent maritime systems.关键词
航运韧性/分布式因果发现/多智能体博弈/应急响应/时序因果/数字孪生Key words
maritime resilience/distributed causal discovery/multi-agent game theory/emergency response/temporal causality/digital twin分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
张兵,余文涛,陈晓慧,刘建辉,罗善军,黄亮..基于因果发现与博弈协同的航运韧性调度方法[J].信息工程大学学报,2026,27(4):399-405,421,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42371438) （42371438）
