中华耳科学杂志2026，Vol.24Issue(9)：833-839,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1672-2922.2026.09.001
1991-2021年中国与不同社会人口学指数地区5岁以下儿童中耳炎疾病负担分析及未来趋势预测
Disease burden and risk factors for otitis media in children under 5 years of age in China and other sociodemographic index regions(1991 to 2021)and predictions
摘要
Abstract
Objective To compare and analyze the trend of otitis media(OM)disease burden and risk factors in children under 5 years of age in China and in other regions with different sociodemographic indices from 1991 to 2021,to lay a science based foundation for prevention and management of OM in children as well as formulation of targeted intervention strategies.Methods Joinpoint regression modeling was applied to 2021 Global Burden of Disease(GBD)data,including prevalence,years lived with disability(YLD),years of life lost(YLL),disability-adjusted life years(DALY),and their average annual percentage changes(AAPC),to obtain the disease burden of OM.Additionally,the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average(ARIMA)model was employed to predict the prevalence and DALY of OM in China and other regions with different sociodemographic indices in the next 15 years.Results From 1991 to 2021,OM related YLL and DALY in Chinese children under 5 years of age showed a significant trend of decrease(by 99.110%and 2.422%,respectively).In 2021,the prevalence,YLD,YLL and DALY of OM in children under 5 years of age in China were 2337.439/100 000,41.566/100 000,0.005/100 000 and 41.571/100 000,respectively,with higher prevalence,YLD and DALY in boys(2348.585/100 000,425.727/100 000 and 42.529/100 000)than in girls((2324.563/100 000,440.455/100 000 and 404.640/100 000).The DALY of OM in children under 5 years of age in other SDI regions also showed a significant trend of decrease,although the burden of disease in low SDI and low-middle SDI regions was always significantly higher than in China and other SDI regions.Secondhand smoking exposure,particulate matter pollution,low birth weight and short gestation were the main risk factors for OM in this pediatric population in China and other SDI regions,with secondhand smoking exposure always being the primary risk factor.Over the next 15 years,the DALY of OM in China and middle-SDI and high-middle-SDI regions will show an upward trend,but a downward trend in low-SDI,low-middle-SDI and high-SDI regions.Conclusions Compared to 1991,the disease burden of OM for children under 5 years of age in 2021 showed a decreasing trend in China and other SDI regions,and higher in boys than in girls,with the highest disease burden in lower SDI regions.Targeted measures should be taken for prevention and management.关键词
中耳炎/社会人口学指数/疾病负担/危险因素/变化趋势Key words
otitis media/socio-demographic index/burden of disease/risk factors/trend引用本文复制引用
杜媛泽,王春平,王金凤,张佳琪,张小芳,李月圆,成方宇,张信宇,杨鑫,王宗帅..1991-2021年中国与不同社会人口学指数地区5岁以下儿童中耳炎疾病负担分析及未来趋势预测[J].中华耳科学杂志,2026,24(9):833-839,7.基金项目
山东省自然科学基金面上项目(ZR2022MG032) （ZR2022MG032）
潍坊市科技发展计划项目(2024JZ0011) （2024JZ0011）
