中外医学研究2026，Vol.24Issue(20)：1-4,12,5.DOI:10.14033/j.cnki.cfmr.2026.20.001
基于NHANES数据库的3-苯氧基苯甲酸与心血管疾病关联研究及XGBoost预测模型构建
Association between 3-Phenoxybenzoic Acid and Cardiovascular Disease Based on the NHANES Database and Construction of An XGBoost Predictive Model
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To explore the association between the typical metabolite of pyrethroid pesticides,3-phenoxybenzoic acid(3-PBA),and cardiovascular diseases(CVD),and to construct a CVD risk prediction model for sensitive populations based on the ensemble learning model XGBoost(Extreme Gradient Boosting).Method:This study was based on the data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey(NHANES)of the United States from 2007 to 2012,and combined the 3-PBA concentration in urine(corrected by creatinine and logarithmic conversion),the history of CVD,and related covariates for research.Firstly,the association between 3-PBA exposure and CVD was evaluated through multiple logistic regression analysis,and stratified analysis was conducted in different age groups.Further,in the age groups where the logistic regression results showed a significant correlation with log_PBA,the SMOTE technique was used to balance the samples,and the XGBoost model was constructed to predict the CVD risk,and its accuracy rate,recall rate,precision rate,F1 score and AUC were evaluated.Result:logistic regression analysis showed that in the overall population,log_PBA had no statistical correlation with CVD,but in the elderly population aged≥65 years,it was significantly positively correlated(OR=1.55,95％CI:1.05～2.30,P<0.05).The XGBoost model constructed based on this population performed well in the test set:an accuracy rate of 80.8％,a positive recall rate of 83.1％,a positive precision rate of 79.3％,an F1 score of 81.2％,and an AUC of 0.886.Conclusion:This study shows that the level of 3-PBA in urine has a significant positive impact on the CVD risk in the elderly population,and the XGBoost model can effectively identify high-risk individuals.The results support the inclusion of environmental exposure factors in the chronic disease risk assessment system,which can provide data support for the early identification and intervention of CVD in the elderly population.关键词
美国国家健康与营养调查/3-苯氧基苯甲酸/心血管疾病/XGBoost/机器学习Key words
National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey/3-phenoxybenzoic acid/Cardiovascular disease/Extreme Gradient Boosting/Machine learning引用本文复制引用
陈祺焘,孙国强,周悦,倪璟雯,张晓俊,夏丽珍..基于NHANES数据库的3-苯氧基苯甲酸与心血管疾病关联研究及XGBoost预测模型构建[J].中外医学研究,2026,24(20):1-4,12,5.基金项目
福建省自然科学基金计划项目(No:2025J011566) （No:2025J011566）
福建中医药大学校管课题临床专项(No:XB2025147) （No:XB2025147）
三明市卫生健康科技创新联合项目(No:2025-S-045) （No:2025-S-045）
