长江科学院院报2026，Vol.43Issue(9)：28-36,61,10.DOI:10.11988/ckyyb.20250565
基于组合赋权及系统动力学的水资源承载力评价
Assessing Water Resources Carrying Capacity Based on Combined Weighting and System Dynamics:Case Study of Fenhe River Basin
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]Due to regional water shortage and the unreasonable exploitation and utilization of water re-sources in the Fenhe River Basin,the carrying capacity of water resources is facing serious challenges.Most existing studies on water resources evaluation in the entire Fenhe River Basin use static methods and cannot predict future water resources utilization trends or support rational water resources planning.This study establishes a system dy-namics model for water resources carrying capacity to overcome the limitations of static assessment methods,the im-balance between subjective and objective weights in the evaluation indicators,and the multiple-equilibrium problem of single game-theory combined weighting,thereby enabling an accurate analysis of the current status of water re-sources utilization and the evaluation of water resources carrying capacity under different scenarios in the Fenhe River Basin.[Methods]The cooperative game combined weighting-VIKOR comprehensive evaluation method was adopted to assess the water resources carrying capacity of the Fenhe River Basin during historical periods(2013-2023).Through the system dynamics model,four optimization schemes for water resources utilization were pro-posed,and the water demand and water resources carrying capacity for the future period(2024-2035)were pre-dicted.[Results](1)The water resources carrying capacity of Fenhe River Basin generally showed an upward trend from 2013 to 2023.Taiyuan City,benefiting from the Yellow River Water Diversion Project and water-saving and groundwater-extraction restriction policies,had relatively abundant water resources and higher carrying capacity than the other four cities.Because of low irrigation and industrial water-use efficiency and excessive groundwater ex-ploitation,the water resources carrying capacity values of the four areas of Jinzhong City,Lüliang City,Linfen City and Yuncheng City were all between 0.19 and 0.45,belonging to the critical overload and overload states.(2)A-mong the four prediction schemes,the current continuation scheme had relatively high short-term total water de-mand in the basin,with a prominent contradiction between water supply and demand,and was in a long-term water shortage state.The supply and demand gap of the water resources conservation scheme shrank year by year and reached a balanced state in 2027,changing from critical overload to a relatively strong carrying capacity state.The water demand and supply of the agriculture-priority scheme increased rapidly year by year and reached a balance in 2031,and the scheme entered a relatively strong carrying capacity state.The comprehensive coordinated develop-ment scheme balanced economic and ecological development.The supply and demand gap reached equilibrium in 2028,and the carrying capacity of water resources increased rapidly.It was the optimal scheme.[Conclusion]The research results provide theoretical reference for the sustainable utilization and management of water resources in the Fenhe River Basin.关键词
汾河流域/水资源承载力/博弈论/组合赋权/系统动力学Key words
Fenhe River Basin/water resources carrying capacity/game theory/combined weighting/system dy-namics分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
王晓琴,李数林,汪银龙..基于组合赋权及系统动力学的水资源承载力评价[J].长江科学院院报,2026,43(9):28-36,61,10.基金项目
重庆市技术创新与应用发展重点专项(CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0132) （CSTB2022TIAD-KPX0132）
中交第一公路勘察设计研究院有限公司科技创新基金项目(KCJJ2021-13) （KCJJ2021-13）
