西部论坛2026，Vol.36Issue(4)：12-23,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1674-8131.2026.04.002
经济不确定性的高维测度与信心效应研究
High-Dimensional Measurement of Economic Uncertainty and Its Confidence Effects:On the Confidence Resilience and Spillover of Consumers and Entrepreneurs
摘要
Abstract
Based on the pivotal role of confidence in mitigating economic uncertainty shocks and the interplay among different types of confidence,it is particularly essential to delve into the resilience of confidence under economic uncertainty shocks and the additive effects among various types of confidence under the uncertainty shocks and the overall trend of seeking progress while maintaining stability. This paper first quantitatively measures the economic uncertainty index based on the high-dimensional factor model,and depicts the association between economic uncertainty and confidence.It further uses the endogenous TVP-VAR model to simulate the time-varying shock of economic uncertainty,focusing on characterizing the heterogeneous shock effects of economic uncertainty in different risk perception stages.Next,based on the dual perspectives of"resistance"and"resilience",this paper quantitatively measures confidence resilience under the shock of economic uncertainty and uses the TVP-VAR-DY model to examine the dynamic spillover effects between different types of confidence.The research results show that:first,the fluctuations of China's economic uncertainty index have a good fitting effect on typical economic events.In most periods,there is a reverse deviation relationship between economic uncertainty and confidence.Second,economic uncertainty generally has a negative shock on consumer confidence and entrepreneurial confidence.The intensity of the shock depends on whether risks are perceived positively or negatively.Under positive risk perception,the negative shock of economic uncertainty on confidence is weak;under negative risk perception,economic uncertainty has a strong negative shock on confidence.Third,under the shock of economic uncertainty,different types of confidence exhibit varying degrees of resilience,with a positive additive relationship existing among them.The level of spillover is broadly consistent with the stylized facts of China's economic development. Compared with previous literature,the innovations of this paper are as follows:First,based on a high-dimensional factor model,this paper quantitatively measures the economic uncertainty index and,on the basis of characterizing the relationship between economic uncertainty and confidence,employs an endogenous TVP-VAR model to simulate the dynamic shock of economic uncertainty on confidence,providing a reference for the government to mitigate economic uncertainty by boosting confidence.Additionally,the analysis of heterogeneous confidence effects of economic uncertainty under different risk perceptions offers insights for the government to implement differentiated policies for various actors.Second,from the perspectives of"resistance"and"resilience",this paper calculates confidence resilience under economic uncertainty shocks,broadening the research scope of economic uncertainty shocks.Third,by applying the TVP-VAR-DY model,this paper examines the positive synergistic effects and phased characteristics among different confidence indicators,providing data support for a deeper understanding of confidence interconnections across sectors and offering guidance for the government on how to leverage confidence interplay to effectively navigate economic uncertainty. This study on economic uncertainty and confidence helps various sectors fully understand the differences in risk perception among different agents and the additive effects among different types of confidence.It also provides a reference for rationally assessing the negative impact of economic uncertainty on different confidence levels,effectively leveraging the risk-resistance capacity of confidence,and fully harnessing the positive interactions among different types of confidence.关键词
经济不确定性/消费者信心/企业家信心/信心韧性/信心溢出/风险感知Key words
economic uncertainty/consumer confidence/entrepreneurial confidence/confidence resilience/confidence spillover/risk perception分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
张龙,张伟琦..经济不确定性的高维测度与信心效应研究[J].西部论坛,2026,36(4):12-23,12.基金项目
国家社会科学基金一般项目(23BJY202) （23BJY202）
