铁道科学与工程学报2026，Vol.23Issue(8)：3992-4005,14.DOI:10.19713/j.cnki.43-1423/u.T20251545
境外铁路外部效益内部化博弈仿真及最优实现路径研究
Research on game simulation and optimal implementation pathways for the internalization of external benefits of overseas railways
摘要
Abstract
To address the challenge of constrained sustainable development in overseas railway projects caused by the difficulty of internalizing their significant external benefits,this study constructed a three-dimensional collaborative analysis framework integrating"benefit quantification,stakeholder game analysis,and dynamic simulation"to identify optimal pathways for internalizing such external benefits.First,the concept and scope of external benefits generated by overseas railways were defined.Subsequently,the internal logic and response mechanisms of internalization were systematically examined using the DPSIR framework.Based on this analysis,a Stackelberg game model was developed to simulate the strategic interactions between the railway decision-making authority and the investment and operation entity.By taking an overseas high-speed rail project as a case study,four key external benefits-land value appreciation,tourism growth,carbon emission reduction,and congestion alleviation-were selected as targets for internalization.A system dynamics model was established to simulate and evaluate the effects of internalization under multiple scenarios.The results demonstrate that the internalization system for external benefits of overseas railways constitutes a relational network with dynamic feedback and causal chains.Internalizing external benefits introduces positive feedback into the system,further enhancing benefit values and forming a virtuous cycle.For the high-speed rail case,land value appreciation and tourism benefits are best internalized via development rights grants and value capture mechanisms,while carbon reduction and congestion mitigation benefits are more suited to fiscal compensation.Multi-element collaborative internalization proves more effective than single-element pathways,and higher internalization ratios significantly amplify external benefits.The coordinated internalization of all four benefits is identified as the optimal pathway,with a game equilibrium achieved between the investor-operator and the decision-maker at an internalization ratio of 30%.These findings offer theoretical support and practical guidance for internalizing external benefits in overseas railway projects.关键词
境外铁路/外部效益内部化/DPSIR框架/Stackelberg博弈/系统动力学Key words
overseas railway/internalization of external benefits/DPSIR framework/Stackelberg game/system dynamics分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
张健,鲍学英,李海文,王妍..境外铁路外部效益内部化博弈仿真及最优实现路径研究[J].铁道科学与工程学报,2026,23(8):3992-4005,14.基金项目
中国国家铁路集团有限公司科技研究开发计划项目资金资助(2024F021) （2024F021）
