东北林业大学学报2026，Vol.54Issue(9)：48-59,12.
应用最大熵模型预测不同气候情景下绿竹的潜在适生区
Prediction of Potential Suitable Habitats for Bambusa oldhamii under Different Climate Scenarios Using the Max-Ent Model
摘要
Abstract
To address the impacts of climate change on Bambusa oldhamii resources and clarify the dynamics of its suitable habi-tats,the MaxEnt model was applied to predict the potential suitable habitats of B.oldhamii under current and future(2041-2060,2061-2080)climate scenarios(SSP126,SSP245,SSP585),based on 71 occurrence records and 28 en-vironmental variables including bioclimatic,soil,radiation and elevation factors.The results showed that:(1)The model achieved high prediction accuracy with an AUC value of 0.967.(2)At present,suitable habitats are mainly distributed in subtropical and warm-temperate regions of South China,East China and Southwest China.(3)Under future scenarios,the suitable habitat area showed an initial increase followed by a decrease under SSP126 and SSP245,with a northward expan-sion followed by a southward contraction,while a significant decreasing trend was observed under SSP585.(4)Precipita-tion of the coldest quarter,elevation,mean temperature of the driest quarter and precipitation of the wettest quarter were the key factors affecting the distribution of B.oldhamii.Among them,precipitation of the coldest quarter contributed the most(71.5%),and elevation had the highest permutation importance(37.8%).关键词
最大熵模型/潜在适生区/气候变化/环境因子Key words
MaxEnt model/Potential suitable habitat/Climate change/Environmental factors分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
曾奎,辉朝茂,刘蔚漪,郑蓉..应用最大熵模型预测不同气候情景下绿竹的潜在适生区[J].东北林业大学学报,2026,54(9):48-59,12.基金项目
"十四五"国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFD2201201) （2023YFD2201201）
云南省基础研究项目(202201AT070053) （202201AT070053）
云南省农业联合专项项目(202301BD070001-123). （202301BD070001-123）
