电测与仪表2026，Vol.63Issue(9)：96-106,11.DOI:10.19753/j.issn1001-1390.2026.09.010
考虑光伏电源间歇性与波动性的超短期电力负荷预测
Ultra-short-term power load forecasting considering intermittency and volatility of photovoltaic power sources
摘要
Abstract
The output power of photovoltaic(PV)power sources is significantly affected by factors such as weather and light intensity,exhibiting notable intermittency and volatility.When the grid-connected capacity of PV is large,these characteristics cause the power load to exhibit non-stationary random characteristics,thereby increasing the difficulty of load forecasting.Traditional load forecasting methods neglect the intermittency and volatility of PV power sources.As a result,when dealing with complex load time series,they struggle to accurately calculate the correlation coefficients,leading to large forecasting errors.To address this issue,this paper proposes an ultra-short-term power load forecasting method that takes into account the intermittency and volatility of PV power sources.Historical power load data is collected to extract the load change patterns.Meanwhile,the real-time operating data of PV power sources is gathered to calculate the intermittency coefficient and volatility coefficient,and to clarify the influence relationship between these coefficients and the power load.Then,based on the time interval between the ultra-short-term forecasting time node and the current node,an initial forecast value of the power load is generated.The initial forecast value is corrected using the calculation results of the above-mentioned influence parameters to obtain an accurate forecast result.Performance test experiments demonstrate that under the two operating conditions of normal days and rest days,the forecast values obtained by this method are highly consistent with the actual power load values,demonstrating obvious application advantages.关键词
光伏电源/间歇性/波动性/超短期电力负荷/负荷预测Key words
photovoltaic power supply/intermittent/volatility/ultra-short-term power load/load forecasting分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
温卓衡,唐忠..考虑光伏电源间歇性与波动性的超短期电力负荷预测[J].电测与仪表,2026,63(9):96-106,11.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(52177185) （52177185）
