大地测量与地球动力学2026，Vol.46Issue(9)：1046-1053,8.DOI:10.14075/j.jgg.2025.11.366
世界时预报误差对卫星定轨精度影响分析
Impact of Universal Time Prediction Errors on the Accuracy of Satellite Orbit Determination
摘要
Abstract
Aiming at the critical influence of universal time 1(UT1)prediction accuracy on satellite precise orbit determination,this paper quantitatively analyzes the prediction performance of 116 bat-ches of Bulletin A released by the international Earth rotation and reference systems service(IERS).Taking multi-orbit targets including the TianQin-3 satellite,space station and Beidou satellites as ex-amples,the magnitude estimation formula for the influence of UT1 prediction error on orbit determi-nation accuracy is verified.A rapid evaluation of the three-dimensional orbital deviation of satellites is realized only based on orbital radius and universal time error.The analysis results show that the UT1 prediction error of Bulletin A exhibits obvious uncertainty and increases significantly with the growth of time scale.Its 30-day mean prediction error(3.399 ms)causes orbital deviations ranging from 1.673 m to 24.79 m for satellites from low Earth orbit to deep space exploration represented by the TianQin-3 satellite.The quantitative results reveal that the accuracy of existing prediction products has a non-negligible impact on future high-precision aerospace missions,and demonstrate the necessity of developing China's independent and high-precision universal time measurement and pre-diction system.关键词
世界时/预报误差/定轨精度/世界时测量与预报系统/地球定向参数Key words
universal time/prediction error/accuracy of orbit determination/universal time measure-ment and prediction system/Earth orientation parameters分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
李蕊,柳奎,秦成刚,吴梓鹏,詹苏,李祝,谷德峰,涂良成..世界时预报误差对卫星定轨精度影响分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2026,46(9):1046-1053,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(42574061) （42574061）
国家精密重力测量科学中心开放课题(PGMF-2024-P013 （）
NGL-2025-006) （）
空间基准全国重点实验室基金(SKLSD2025-KF-03) （SKLSD2025-KF-03）
中山大学中央高校基本科研业务费专项. （）
