大地测量与地球动力学2026，Vol.46Issue(9)：1062-1069,8.DOI:10.14075/j.jgg.2025.12.422
甘肃及邻区地震空区预报效能分析
Prediction Effectiveness of Seismic Gap in Gansu and Its Adjacent Regions
摘要
Abstract
We analyze the prediction effectiveness of seismic gaps before MS≥5 earthquakes in Gansu region from 1984 to 2023.The results show that seismic gaps in Gansu and its adjacent regions have an accuracy rate of 0.75,a false rate of 0.25,and a missing rate of 0.38 for forecasting moderate-strong earthquakes in Gansu.The R-value is 0.5,which exceeds the R0 value of 0.23 at the 97.5％confidence level.This demonstrates that seismic gaps have relatively good forecasting capability for moderate-strong earthquakes in Gansu.The mainshocks generally occurred inside the seismic gaps or near their edges,and the duration of these seismic gaps does not exceed 8 years.The number of broken and unbroken seismic gaps before mainshocks are comparable.The probability of the mainshock oc-curring within 1 year after the broken gap is about 89％,and about 67％within 4 months.There is no obvious correlation existed between the duration of seismic gap and the mainshock magnitude.Howev-er,there is a linear relationship between the minimum magnitude of seismic gap with initial magnitude of ML3.0～4.0,and the long axis of seismic gap has a good correlation with the mainshock magnitude.The seismic gap can be used as one of the important indicators for predicting moderate-strong earthquakes in western Qilian mountains,the southeastern part of eastern Qilian mountains and Minxian-Diebu section.It is also a significant indicator for predicting MS≥6 earthquakes in Gansu.The probability of two seismic gaps appearing before mainshock is very high,and the mainshock is most likely to occur within 4 months after the broken gap,located inside or near the overlapping re-gion of the two seismic gaps.关键词
地震空区/中强地震/预报效能分析/甘肃地区Key words
seismic gap/moderate-strong earthquake/prediction effectiveness analysis/Gansu region分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
窦喜英,张辉,李敏娟,王恩利,秦雯..甘肃及邻区地震空区预报效能分析[J].大地测量与地球动力学,2026,46(9):1062-1069,8.基金项目
甘肃省高等学校创新基金(2022A-213) （2022A-213）
兰州石化职业技术大学博士基金(JK2021-02) （JK2021-02）
中国地震局震情跟踪课题(CEA-ZQGZ-202501047). （CEA-ZQGZ-202501047）
