电力需求侧管理2026，Vol.28Issue(5)：15-22,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2026.05.003
内嵌解析化可靠性提升目标的新能源配电系统柔性负荷调度方法
Flexible load dispatch method for power distribution system with high penetration of renewable energy based on analytical reliability indices
摘要
Abstract
To address correlated source-load forecast errors and delayed reliability feedback for flexible load dispatch in high-penetration renewable distribution systems,a flexible load dispatch method embedding analytical reliability indices is proposed.Firstly,critical contin-gencies are screened using uniform design,and forecast-error correlations are represented through Cholesky decomposition.Analytical mini-mum-load-shedding functions are constructed by combining the modified stochastic response surface method with polynomial chaos expan-sion(mSRSM-PCE).Then,load shifting and shedding decisions are mapped to expected demand not supplied(EDNS),and a comprehen-sive model considering reliability risk,regulation cost,user comfort loss,and flexible-load capacity cost is formulated.Lastly,the method is validated using 50 source-load scenarios generated by a generative adversarial network.Compared with conventional PCE,mSRSM-PCE re-duces the mean absolute error and root mean square error of EDNS by 30.38％and 11.82％,respectively,while limiting the absolute relative error of mean EDNS to 0.0329％.The recommended flexible-load capacity ratio is 8％under the baseline condition,reducing EDNS by 10.30％～80.52％across four typical scenarios.Sensitivity analyses confirm reliable performance under different objective weights and fore-cast-error correlations.关键词
配电系统/柔性负荷调度/可靠性评估/解析化指标/改进随机响应面Key words
power distribution system/flexible load dispatch/reliability evaluation/analytical indices/improved stochastic response surface分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
贺文,王阳,顾宇菲,何志强,季升,黄玉雄..内嵌解析化可靠性提升目标的新能源配电系统柔性负荷调度方法[J].电力需求侧管理,2026,28(5):15-22,8.基金项目
国网宁夏电力有限公司科技项目(SGNXYCOOPWJS2404422) （SGNXYCOOPWJS2404422）
国家重点研发计划(2024YFE0202600) （2024YFE0202600）
