电力需求侧管理2026，Vol.28Issue(5)：31-37,7.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1009-1831.2026.05.005
基于动态碳配额分配的大型城市脱碳路径优化方法
Decarbonization pathway optimization for metropolitan areas based on dynamic carbon quota allocation
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of accelerating global carbon neutrality and increasingly complex urban decarbonization systems,existing urban energy models still have limitations in system-boundary representation and flexible carbon quota adjustment.A decarbonization path-way optimization method for metropolitan areas based on dynamic carbon quota allocation is proposed.First,multisource data are integrat-ed,and the LEAP model is employed to simulate the evolution of urban energy demand and carbon emissions under different policy scenari-os.Second,a government-industry Stackelberg game is formulated,in which the urban carbon emission constraint is embedded into the in-dustry quota adjustment process,and the quota adjustment coefficient and optimal output are derived analytically.Third,emission-reduc-tion cost perturbation scenarios are established to analyze changes in sectoral emission-reduction contributions,timing,and technology sub-stitution intensity.Finally,a case study of Tianjin is conducted.The results show that the decarbonization pathways of key urban sectors can be identified by the proposed method.Compared with static allocation,the dynamic quota mechanism achieves greater emission reductions while balancing enterprise profit and government social welfare.关键词
LEAP模型/脱碳路径/Stackelberg主从博弈/碳配额动态分配/减排成本Key words
LEAP model/decarbonization pathways/Stackelberg game/dynamic carbon quota allocation/emission-reduction cost分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
王洋,罗帅,刘宁,高毅,项添春,周进,李娜..基于动态碳配额分配的大型城市脱碳路径优化方法[J].电力需求侧管理,2026,28(5):31-37,7.基金项目
国网天津市电力公司科技项目资助(经研-研发2024-02) （经研-研发2024-02）
