干旱区研究2026，Vol.43Issue(9)：1848-1858,11.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2026.09.05
叶尔羌河流域洪水灾害损失评估
Quantitative assessment of flood-induced economic losses in the Yarkant River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Against the backdrop of global climate warming,river basins dominated by glacial meltwater are fac-ing increasingly severe flood risks.Scientifically assessing flood-induced economic losses is essential for improv-ing disaster prevention and enhancing regional flood resilience.This study focuses on the Yarkant river basin—an inland river in an arid region—and employs the two-dimensional High-Performance Integrated Hydrodynamic Modelling System to simulate flood inundation processes under 5-year and 20-year return periods.By integrat-ing multi-source spatial data(including land use,roads,buildings,and crop distribution)and localizing the water depth-loss rate relationships for three exposure types(buildings,roads,and crops),this study establishes an eco-nomic loss assessment model for flooding in the Yarkant River Basin and evaluates losses under different return periods.The results show that the total direct economic loss caused by a 20-year flood is 2.42×108 yuan,whereas the total loss caused by a 5-year flood is 5.28×107 yuan(～22％of the 20-year flood loss).Although the shallow inundation area has relatively low water depths of 0-0.5 m,it still contributes approximately～40.8％of the total loss under the 5-year flood scenario.Under the 20-year flood scenario,this proportion decreases to approximate-ly 10.5％,indicating that the loss contribution shifts from shallow to medium-depth areas as flood intensity in-creases.These findings provide scientific support for flood control planning and risk management in the Yarkant River Basin and offer a reference for similar inland river basins.关键词
洪灾/经济损失/HiPIMS模型/损失率/叶尔羌河流域Key words
flood disaster/economic loss/HiPIMS/damage rate/Yarkant River Basin引用本文复制引用
邱月,何英,刘英,杜鹏,张志勇,刘振..叶尔羌河流域洪水灾害损失评估[J].干旱区研究,2026,43(9):1848-1858,11.基金项目
新疆维吾尔自治区重点研发专项资助(2022B03021-1) （2022B03021-1）
第三次新疆综合科学考察项目资助(2022xjkk070101) （2022xjkk070101）
中国科学院"西部之光"人才培养计划(2021-XBQNXZ-012) （2021-XBQNXZ-012）
新疆维吾尔自治区"天山英才培养"计划资助(2022TSYCLJ0011) （2022TSYCLJ0011）
