干旱区研究2026，Vol.43Issue(9)：1859-1874,16.DOI:10.13866/j.azr.2026.09.06
台兰河流域地下咸水影响因素及演化预测
Influencing factors and evolution prediction of groundwater salinity in the Tailan River Basin
摘要
Abstract
To explore the influencing factors and evolutionary patterns of groundwater salinity in the Tailan River Basin,this study selected the basin as the research area.Based on 94 groups of groundwater hydrochemical data,the spatial distribution characteristics and influencing factors of groundwater salinity were systematically ana-lyzed using hydrochemical statistics,Piper three-line diagram,ion ratio analysis,and spatial interpolation meth-ods.On this basis,a MODFLOW-SEAWAT coupled variable-density flow and solute transport model was devel-oped.Two scenarios,no groundwater extraction and current extraction conditions,were established to simulate and predict groundwater total dissolved solid(TDS)transport processes from 2020 to 2030.The results show that(1)TDS in the study area shows a spatial trend of increasing from upstream to downstream along the river.The groundwater is generally neutral to weakly alkaline,with the dominant ions including Na++K+,Cl-,and SO42-.Hy-drochemical types are mainly SO4-Ca·Mg and Cl-Na.(2)Groundwater chemistry is primarily controlled by rock weathering,evaporation-concentration processes,and cation exchange,with evaporation-concentration identified as the dominant factor contributing to the formation of high-TDS water bodies.(3)Simulation results show that under the no-exploitation scenario,the salinization of groundwater continues to develop:the proportion of fresh-water areas shrinks from 75.72％to 74.94％(a reduction of 13.55 km2),while the saline water area gradually in-creases from 153.64 to 169.64 km2(an increase of 0.92％in its area share).Under current pumping conditions,ac-celerated groundwater circulation owing to extraction partially inhibits salinization.The area of freshwater in-creases by 37.15 km2(an expansion of 2.14％),whereas the area of saline water decreases by 2.09％,indicating a mitigation of highly mineralized water expansion.These results provide important guidance for the rational utili-zation of saline water resources and the sustainable management of groundwater in the Tailan River Basin.关键词
台兰河流域/咸水演化/水化学特征/影响因素/MODFLOW-SEAWATKey words
Tailan River Basin/saltwater evolution/hydrochemical characteristics/influencing factor/MOD-FLOW-SEAWAT引用本文复制引用
马晓菲,杜明亮,崔瑞,刘炎昆,胡舒婷,庹子赟,田笑语..台兰河流域地下咸水影响因素及演化预测[J].干旱区研究,2026,43(9):1859-1874,16.基金项目
"新疆水利工程安全与水灾害防治重点实验室"2024年研究项目(ZDSYS-YJS-2024-69) （ZDSYS-YJS-2024-69）
