国际论坛2026，Vol.28Issue(5)：133-154,22.DOI:10.13549/j.cnki.cn11-3959/d.2026.05.008
人口结构变迁与美国两党博弈的政治效应分析
Population Structure Dynamics and the Political Consequences of the U.S.Two-Party Competition
摘要
Abstract
The U.S.two-party competition is no longer merely a recurrence of its domestic political cycle;it has become a deep-seated independent variable directly shaping the international relations landscape of the 21st century.Its spillover effects pose direct and profound challenges to China and the world alike.Population is a fundamental,comprehensive,long-term,and strategic element of national development,and core structural factors such as education level,ethnicity,and age shape individuals' political attitudes and influence their political participation and voting.In response to the concerns of young,elderly,and minority voters,the two parties continually adjust their political agendas in a targeted manner,shifting the focus of both campaigning and governance toward issues with greater mobilizing effects.Using data from American National Election Survey(ANES),this paper analyzes the impact of the population structure dynamic on the Republican and Democratic parties,and systematically reviews the strategic choices of the two-party competition throughout history.Findings reveal that the strategies of the two parties exhibit distinct antagonism and instrumentalism:the Democratic Party seeks to transform demographic advantages into electoral victory by strengthening social security,advancing climate issues,and conducting systematic voter mobilization;the Republican Party,by contrast,emphasizes exploiting cultural anxieties and modifying electoral rules to consolidate its traditional base and expand emerging support.Ethnic diversification and the rise of the younger generation are,on balance,more favorable to the Democrats,while population aging may help the Republicans broaden their voting foundation.Nevertheless,neither party holds an overall decisive advantage,and both will continue to adjust their campaign strategies dynamically in the future.Although population structure is not the sole determinant of the two-party competition,it remains a key variable for examining changes in America's political map and the competition between the two parties,offering a new analytical perspective for understanding their competition.关键词
美国人口结构/两党博弈/选举策略/政治效应Key words
demographic structure of the United States/two-party competition/election strategy/political consequences分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
王笑非,陆杰华..人口结构变迁与美国两党博弈的政治效应分析[J].国际论坛,2026,28(5):133-154,22.基金项目
本文系2023年国家社会科学基金一般项目"重度老龄社会的经济风险测度、影响机理与应对策略研究"(项目批准号:23BRK012)的阶段性成果. （项目批准号:23BRK012）
