保健医学研究与实践2026，Vol.23Issue(7)：20-29,10.DOI:10.11986/j.issn.1673-873X.2026.07.04
基于GBD 2021的全球、不同社会人口指数地区及中国尘肺病疾病负担变化与预测分析
Trends and projections of pneumoconiosis disease burden globally,across sociodemographic index regions,and in China based on GBD 2021
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the trends in the burden of pneumoconiosis globally,in regions with different sociodemo-graphic indices(SDI),and in China from 1990 to 2021,and to project changes in relevant indicators from 2022 to 2031,so as to provide epidemiological evidence for the formulation of pneumoconiosis prevention and control strategies.Methods Based on data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021(GBD 2021),we extracted the numbers of incident cases,prev-alent cases,deaths,and disability-adjusted life years(DALYs)of pneumoconiosis globally,in different SDI regions,and in China from 1990 to 2021,and calculated the age-standardized incidence rate(ASIR),age-standardized prevalence rate(AS-PR),age-standardized mortality rate(ASMR),and age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR).Joinpoint regression models were used to analyze the trends and calculate the average annual percent change(AAPC).The autoregressive integrated moving average(ARIMA)model was used to project changes in relevant indicators from 2022 to 2031.Results From 1990 to 2021,the estimated global incident cases of pneumoconiosis increased from 42,187.99 to 62,866.45,while the ASIR de-creased from 1.03/100,000 to 0.74/100,000(AAPC=-1.08%,95%CI:-1.11%to-1.05%,P<0.001).The esti-mated prevalent cases increased from 225,195.72 to 396,608.05,with the ASPR decreasing from 5.43/100,000 to 4.62/100,000(AAPC=-0.52%,95%CI:-0.56%to-0.48%,P<0.001).The estimated deaths increased from 17,471.32 to 18,322.53,with the ASMR decreasing from 0.46/100,000 to 0.22/100,000(AAPC=-2.39%,95%CI:-2.53%to-2.26%,P<0.001).The estimated DALYs decreased from 461,963.32 personyears to 447,064.52 personyears,with the ASDR decreasing from 11.36/100,000 to 5.22/100,000(AAPC=-2.48%,95%CI:-2.60%to-2.36%,P<0.001).In China,the numbers of incident cases,prevalent cases,and deaths all increased over the same period,and DA-LYs increased slightly,while the ASIR,ASPR,ASMR,and ASDR decreased from 2.20/100,000,13.07/100,000,0.90/100,000,and 24.32/100,000 to 1.42/100,000,10.07/100,000,0.41/100,000,and 10.86/100,000,respectively,with AAPCs of-1.42%,-0.84%,-2.53%,and-2.63%(P<0.001).The age-standardized indicators in different SDI re-gions generally showed decreasing trends,but the magnitudes of decline varied.ARIMA projections indicated that by 2031,the global ASIR,ASPR,ASMR,and ASDR would be 0.64/100,000,4.29/100,000,0.15/100,000,and 4.62/100,000,respectively,while in China they would be 1.29/100,000,9.14/100,000,0.26/100,000,and 6.71/100,000,respectively.Some heterogeneity in projected ASPR trends was observed in certain SDI regions.Conclusion From 1990 to 2021,the age-standardized disease burden indicators for pneumoconiosis globally and in China generally showed decreasing trends,but the changes in absolute disease burden and age-standardized indicators were not synchronous,and the extent of improvement varied across SDI regions.In China,the numbers of incident cases,prevalent cases,and deaths still increased,indicating sustained longterm disease management pressure.From 2022 to 2031,global and Chinese agestandardized indicators are projected to continue decreasing overall,but China will still maintain a relatively high disease burden.Continued efforts to strengthen industrial dust exposure control,early screening,and long-term follow-up and rehabilitation management of pa-tients are warranted to further reduce the burden of pneumoconiosis.关键词
尘肺病/疾病负担/社会人口指数/转折点回归分析/自回归积分滑动平均模型Key words
Pneumoconiosis/Disease burden/Sociodemographic index/Joinpoint regression analysis/Autoregressive inte-grated moving average model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
罗天宇,朱佑明,颜源,钱川,鲍新月,吴国缘,金天衡..基于GBD 2021的全球、不同社会人口指数地区及中国尘肺病疾病负担变化与预测分析[J].保健医学研究与实践,2026,23(7):20-29,10.基金项目
重庆市科卫联合医学科研项目(2025MSXM176). （2025MSXM176）
