河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）2026，Vol.45Issue(5)：20-29,10.DOI:10.16186/j.cnki.1673-9787.2025050045
考虑变点和测量误差的剩余寿命预测方法研究
Research on remaining life estimation method considering change points and measurement errors
摘要
Abstract
Objectives In order to improve the prediction accuracy of the remaining service life of the prod-uct,a two-stage nonlinear Wiener process degradation model in which both change points and measurement errors were considered was proposed.Methods Firstly,based on the statistical characteristics of degrada-tion data for products of the same type,a change point detection algorithm was used to estimate the change points of the product offline based on statistical characteristics of degradation data for products of the same type.The maximum likelihood estimation method was used to solve the initial model parameters.Then,based on the change point position of the same type products,the threshold value of degradation angle cri-terion was determined to realize monitoring the change point of target products online.On this basis,the Kalman filtering algorithm was used to estimate the hidden state of the target product,and the model pa-rameters were updated online.The expressions for the RUL probability density function and cumulative dis-tribution function considering online updating of the model parameters were derived.Finally,the effective-ness and rationality of the proposed method were verified by comparing and analyzing the simulated degra-dation data and the experimental data on NASA electrolytic capacitor accelerated degradation,respectively.Results Compared with the single-stage nonlinear Wiener process,the simulation data analysis results showed that the mean absolute error(MAE)of the proposed algorithm decreased by 1.558 9;Comparinged with the traditional two Wiener process models,the verification results of accelerated aging test data indi-cated that the mean square error of capacitor remaining life prediction using the proposed method have been improved by 524.473 3 and 112.759 1,respectively.Conclusions The research results have important reference values for remaining life study of products with different degradation patterns during different us-age periods,especially suitable for situations where there was a significant difference in degradation charac-teristics between the early and late stages of product performance degradation.关键词
剩余寿命预测/两阶段非线性Wiener过程/变点估计/测量误差Key words
remaining useful life prediction/two-stage nonlinear Wiener process/change point detection/measurement error分类
通用工业技术引用本文复制引用
李小波,汪翔,王睿轶,沈青..考虑变点和测量误差的剩余寿命预测方法研究[J].河南理工大学学报（自然科学版）,2026,45(5):20-29,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51907117) （51907117）
