林草政策研究2026，Vol.6Issue(2)：83-90,8.DOI:10.12344/lczcyj.2025.12.19.0001
中国木材市场景气指数体系构建及预警应用
Construction and Early Warning Application of the Prosperity Index System for China's Timber Market
摘要
Abstract
The construction of the prosperity index system for timber market can directly reflect the operation status and cyclical fluctuation characteristics of China's timber market,and provide decision support for market monitoring and macro-control.Based on the annual statistical data from 2005 to 2024,this paper selects indicators from three dimensions:macro-economy operation,timber market development,and related industry dynamics.Adopting time difference correlation analysis method and taking the timber producer price index as the benchmark,this paper classifies indicators into three categories:leading,coincident and lagging.The CRITIC-entropy weight method is applied to assign weights to leading and coincident indicators.Leading and coincident indices are calculated by the comprehensive index method,and an early warning signal system with five-grade warning states is finally established.The results indicate that:1)Eight indicators including money supply(M2)and log import volume are defined as leading indicators,seven indicators such as gross domestic product and per capita disposable income of residents serve as coincident indicators,four indicators including the number of furniture manufacturing enterprises and operating income in furniture manufacturing industry are classified as lagging indicators.2)In the leading indicator group,money supply(M2)holds the highest weight,while in the coincident indicator group,the log import price index holds the highest weight.3)From 2005 to 2024,the coincident index exhibited four distinct cyclical fluctuations,with the leading index preceding the coincident index by approximately one year on average.4)The market development has gone through three stages:"high-frequency fluctuation period,stable operation period and low-level cooling period".In recent years,the timber market has not completely got rid of the low-level operation trend,and the foundation of the overall recovery of the industry still needs to be further consolidated.Accordingly,three suggestions are proposed:1)Implement precise counter-cyclical adjustments to"stabilize the market and protect market entities";2)Vigorously promote industrial transformation to reduce reliance on a single market;3)Institutionalize the prosperity monitoring system to advance the modernization of governance capacity.关键词
木材市场/景气指数/体系构建/预警Key words
timber market/prosperity index/system construction/early warning分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
罗雲,李剑泉..中国木材市场景气指数体系构建及预警应用[J].林草政策研究,2026,6(2):83-90,8.基金项目
中央级公益性科研院所基本科研业务费专项资金项目"双循环双碳背景下中国木材市场景气预警研究"(CAFYBB2023MC003) （CAFYBB2023MC003）
