气象与环境学报2026，Vol.42Issue(3)：1-12,12.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2026.03.001
北京市能源领域主要场景的气象灾害风险评估
Risk assessment of meteorological disasters for key scenarios in Beijing's energy sector
摘要
Abstract
Under the background of global warming,the energy system faces multiple challenges.As a typical ener-gy-importing and energy-consuming megacity,Beijing is experiencing increasingly severe climate risks in the ener-gy sector.This study established an assessment indicator system of the climate disaster risk for key scenarios in the capital's energy sector.By overlaying hazard,exposure and vulnerability,the spatial distribution characteristics of climate disaster risks were obtained for three scenarios in Beijing:summer high temperature electricity consump-tion,winter low temperature natural gas heating,and energy infrastructure safety under extreme precipitation.The results showed that for summer high temperature electricity consumption,the high risk and relatively high-risk areas accounted for 2.5%and 11.2%of the total area,respectively.High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the cap-ital's functional core area,the central built-up areas within the city center,southern Changping and Shunyi,and small parts of northern Daxing and northwestern Tongzhou.For winter low temperature natural gas heating,the are-as with high risk and relatively high-risk accounted for 1.7%and 15.6%,respectively.High-risk areas were main-ly distributed in suburban districts such as Yanqing,Huairou,Miyun,and Pinggu,as well as small parts of north-eastern Fangshan,northern Daxing,and northwestern Tongzhou.For energy infrastructure safety under extreme pre-cipitation,high-risk and relatively high-risk areas accounted for 4.7%and 21.4%,respectively.High-risk areas were mainly distributed in the capital's functional core area,the central built-up areas within the city center,and small parts of northern Daxing and northwestern Tongzhou.In summary,the spatial risk patterns for both the sum-mer high temperature electricity consumption scenario and the extreme precipitation energy infrastructure safety scenario showed lower risk in the western and northern parts and higher risk in the central city.The combined rela-tively high and high-risk areas overlapping for high temperatures and rainstorms accounted for 11.8%of the total area,mainly distributed within the Fourth Ring Road in the central city and contiguous plains in the inner suburbs.In contrast,the combined relatively high and high-risk areas overlapping for low temperatures and rainstorms ac-counted for 6.2%,mainly scattered in the transition zones between suburban plains and low mountains.The rele-vant risk zoning and spatial identification can provide a scientific basis for energy infrastructure planning,climate resilience improvement,and emergency supply guarantee strategy formulation in Beijing.关键词
高温/低温/暴雨/灾害/风险/韧性Key words
High temperature/Low temperature/Rainstorm/Disaster/Risk/Resilience分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
邢佩,祁圻,杜吴鹏,杨晓燕,杨若子,轩春怡,熊飞麟,白孟鑫..北京市能源领域主要场景的气象灾害风险评估[J].气象与环境学报,2026,42(3):1-12,12.基金项目
中国气象局青年创新团队(CMA2024QN12)、国家自然科学基金(41901017)和北京市应对气候变化政策研究和分析评估项目共同资助. （CMA2024QN12）
