气象与环境学报2026，Vol.42Issue(3)：72-82,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1673-503X.2026.03.008
辽宁夏季铁路断行时空分布特征及降水重现期
Research on the spatial-temporal distribution characteristics of summer railway disruptions and precipitation recurrence intervals in Liaoning Province
摘要
Abstract
The temporal and spatial distribution of railway disconnection and its relationship with precipitation char-acteristics were analyzed by using the railway disruption recordsin Liaoning area and matching the precipitation dataprior to the disruption,and the precipitation return period was calculated.The results show that There were 334 railway outagesin Liaoningover the past 11 years,and the annual change trend is consistent with the change trend of summer precipitation in Liaoning.The disruptions were distributedfrom June to October,andthe number of dis-ruptions in August was the highest.The line with the most disruptionsisthe Dandong section of the Shendan Line,followed by the Fuxin-Jinzhou junction section of the Xinyi Lineandthe Jingha High-speed Line.The slope at the railway water damage breakpointsis mainly between 0° and 4°.With the increase of the slope,the frequency de-creases.The elevations are mainly in low-elevation areas below 300 m.There is a significant positive correlation between the number of railway outages and precipitation,andwith a correlation coefficient of 0.86.The main pre-cipitation levels leading to the disruptionsof the railway in summer are rainstorm and heavy rainstorm,and the main precipitation type is local rainstorm.The feature importance of various geographic information elements was ranked,andthe top four elements were selected as clustering factors.The K-means clustering method was used to divide Liaoning into three geographical regions,andthe rainfall return period was calculated using precipitation data from different time periods for the three regions,to support railway disaster prevention in summer.关键词
铁路断行/辽宁省/气候特征/重现期Key words
Railway disruption/Liaoning Province/Climate characteristics/Return period分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张萌萌,张凯,林毅,田华,高峰,李嘉宁,宋健..辽宁夏季铁路断行时空分布特征及降水重现期[J].气象与环境学报,2026,42(3):72-82,11.基金项目
中国气象局创新发展专项(CXFZ2025J071)、中国气象局公共气象服务中心创新基金(M2023010)和辽宁省气象局核心攻关项目(LNCP202302)共同资助. （CXFZ2025J071）
