青岛大学学报（医学版）2026，Vol.62Issue(3)：428-434,7.DOI:10.11712/jms.2096-5532.2026.62.067
基于胸部CT参数的COPD相关肺动脉高压预测模型构建
Construction of a predictive model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease-related pulmonary hypertension based on chest CT parame-ters
摘要
Abstract
Objective To construct a nomogram prediction model for chronic obstructive pulmonary disease(COPD)-related pulmonary hypertension(COPD-PH)based on chest CT parameters.Methods A total of 212 patients with simple COPD and COPD-PH who attended Qingdao Municipal Hospital from January 2023 to December 2024 were enrolled,with 120 patients(30 with simple COPD and 90 with COPD-PH)in the modeling set and 92 patients(20 with simple COPD and 72 with COPD-PH)in the validation set.Related chest CT parameters were collected,including right lower pulmonary artery/bronchus diameter ratio(PDRL/BDRL),left lower pulmonary artery/bronchus diameter ratio(PDLL/BDLL),and pulmonary artery/ascending aortic diame-ter ratio(PAD/AAD),and their correlation with pulmonary artery systolic pressure(PASP)was analyzed.A nomogram model for predicting COPD-PH was constructed based on CT-derived pulmonary vascular remodeling indicators.Results There were sig-nificant differences between the patients with simple COPD and those with different severities of COPD-PH in predicted percentage of forced expiratory volume in 1 second(FEV1％),percentage of predicted maximum mid-expiratory flow(MMEF％),PASP,and Global Initiative for Chronic Obstructive Lung Disease staging(F=3.614-395.473,x2=27.763,P＜0.05).Compared with the simple COPD group,the moderate and severe COPD-PH groups had significant reductions in FEV1％and MMEF％(P＜0.05).In the patients with COPD-PH,PAD/AAD,PDRL/BDRL,and PDLL/BDLL were positively correlated with PASP(r=0.439-0.672,P＜0.05).The nomogram model constructed based on PDRL/BDRL and PAD/AAD for predicting COPD-PH had an area un-der the ROC curve of 0.894 in the modeling set and 0.842 in the validation set.Both calibration curve and decision curve showed that the nomogram had good predictive performance.Conclusion The nomogram model based on PDRL/BDRL and PAD/AAD for pre-dicting COPD-PH has good predictive performance and can provide a reference for early clinical screening.关键词
肺疾病,慢性阻塞性/高血压,肺性/体层摄影术,X线计算机/超声心动描记术,多普勒/预测Key words
pulmonary disease,chronic obstructive/hyper-tension,pulmonary/tomography,X-ray computed/echocardio-graphy,Doppler/forecasting分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
孙丽娟,刘洁,牟朝辉,韩伟,郝万明,李永春..基于胸部CT参数的COPD相关肺动脉高压预测模型构建[J].青岛大学学报（医学版）,2026,62(3):428-434,7.基金项目
山东省医药卫生科技重点项目(202403020-661) （202403020-661）
青岛市医药卫生科研指导项目(2024-WJKY003) （2024-WJKY003）
