全球科技经济瞭望2026，Vol.41Issue(4)：1-8,51,9.DOI:10.3772/j.issn.1009-8623.2026.04.001
德国技术预测发展历程、特征及对中国的启示
The Development History,Characteristics,and Implications for China of German Technology Forecasting
摘要
Abstract
After more than 40 years of development,Germany has established a distinctive operational framework for technology forecasting.The organizational structure of technology forecasting has been steadily improved,forecasting theories have been progressively refined,and the system of forecasting methods has been continuously matured.The forecasting results have not only supported the decision-making of government departments in science and technology management but also enhanced interaction with the public.In light of Germany's experience,China's technology forecasting should focus on the coordination of periodicity and immediacy,strengthen the openness and inclusiveness of technology forecasting work,and pay attention to the multi-channel and multi-scenario application of technology forecasting results.关键词
德国技术预测/预测方法/周期性预测Key words
German Technology Forecast/Prediction Methods/Periodic Prediction分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
孙云杰,玄兆辉..德国技术预测发展历程、特征及对中国的启示[J].全球科技经济瞭望,2026,41(4):1-8,51,9.基金项目
科技部科技强国建设重大问题研究专项"支撑科技强国建设的区域监测评价研究及报告起草"(2025QGZX004). （2025QGZX004）
