人口与经济2026，Vol.47Issue(5)：47-60,14.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.051
不同类型生育支持政策对生育意愿的影响
Impact of Different Types of Fertility Support Policies on Fertility Intentions:Evidence from a Survey Experiment
摘要
Abstract
Accurately understanding the impacts of different types of fertility support policies on individual fertility intentions constitutes an important foundation for improving the fertility support policy system and advancing the construction of a fertility-friendly society.Based on the survey experiment method,this paper analyzes the effects of three categories of fertility support policies—economic support,time support and service support—on individual fertility intentions.The study yields four main findings:First,the effects of fertility support policies vary across policy types.Both economic support and service support significantly raise individuals'ideal number of children,whereas time support shows no statistically significant effect on fertility intentions.Second,different policy instruments operate through distinct mechanisms.Service support exerts a pronounced safety-net effect,significantly lowering the probability that individuals report zero ideal children.By contrast,economic support does not produce a notable safety-net effect.Its influence mainly manifests as an incentive effect,increasing the ideal number of children among individuals who already hold fertility intentions.Third,there are gender-related disparities in the fertility constraints alleviated by different policy instruments.Economic support policies alter the gender composition of ideal children and significantly strengthen individuals'preference for having sons,while neither service support nor time support generates such an effect.Fourth,policy effects exhibit marked population heterogeneity.Fertility support policies exert more prominent influences on unmarried groups,and their effects become more salient when intergenerational family support is insufficient.The findings provide new empirical evidence for optimizing and implementing targeted fertility support policy systems.关键词
生育支持政策/生育意愿/调查实验/生育友好型社会/低生育率Key words
fertility support policies/fertility intentions/survey experiment/fertility-friendly society/low fertility rate分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
王乙杰,雍炜..不同类型生育支持政策对生育意愿的影响[J].人口与经济,2026,47(5):47-60,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年项目(72303138) （72303138）
教育部人文社会科学青年基金项目(21YJC790120) （21YJC790120）
2025年度广东省青少年研究共建课题(2025GJ051). （2025GJ051）
