人口与经济2026，Vol.47Issue(5)：74-86,13.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.046
中国托育服务供需结构研究
A Study on China's Childcare Service Supply-Demand Structure:Why the Expansion of Childcare Slots Has Failed to Translate into Effective Use
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,China's childcare service system has continued to develop,with the number of childcare institutions and the nominal scale of childcare slots growing rapidly.Yet the enrollment rate and the actual utilization rate of childcare slots have remained persistently low,so that the expansion of childcare slots has coexisted with widespread resource idleness.From the perspective of supply and demand structures,this paper draws on micro-level business registration data to examine the expansion path and structural characteristics of China's childcare service supply,as well as the mechanism underlying its divergence from household childcare demand.The study classifies childcare service providers into three categories,namely narrowly defined childcare institutions,kindergarten-affiliated toddler classes,as well as family-based childcare and small community-based childcare points,and finds that,under the joint influence of policy incentives and market entry costs,childcare service supply has long been highly concentrated in narrowly defined childcare institutions characterized by independent organizational status and market-based operation.Households,by contrast,tend to prefer childcare arrangements embedded within the kindergarten system or community public spaces in their childcare decisions,while remaining cautious toward market-based institutions.Differences across childcare arrangements in spatial accessibility,institutional stability,and risk-bearing mechanisms constitute the fundamental reason why a large number of nominal childcare slots fail to translate into effective slots that households actually use.The paper further demonstrates that the low utilization rate of childcare slots represents an inefficient equilibrium endogenously generated by the interaction of policy assessment,market behavior,and household decision-making,each operating under its own constraints,and this equilibrium is difficult to self-correct through price mechanisms or short-term subsidies.Accordingly,the key to improving the utilization efficiency of childcare slots lies in structural adjustment on the supply side,so that the structure of childcare provision gradually converges toward the actual structure of household demand.The contribution of this paper lies in shifting the analytical focus of childcare research from supply scale to utilization efficiency,revealing the institutional roots of the underutilization of childcare slots,and providing empirical evidence for childcare policy to shift from quantitative expansion toward structural optimization and efficiency improvement.关键词
托育服务/托育供给/婴幼儿照护/普惠托育/生育支持Key words
childcare services/childcare supply/infant and toddler care/affordable childcare/fertility support分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
倪晨旭,刘庆丰,马琦峰,丛正龙..中国托育服务供需结构研究[J].人口与经济,2026,47(5):74-86,13.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目"人口发展趋势对经济安全的多重影响与战略应对研究"(25&ZD261). （25&ZD261）
