人口与经济2026，Vol.47Issue(5)：105-119,15.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-4149.2026.00.045
多状态转换矩阵视角下青年就业稳定性再探究
Stability of Employment among Chinese Youth Based on Markov Transition Matrices
摘要
Abstract
With China's economic and social development and its industrial restructuring,the coexistence of high youth employment pressure and structural contradictions has become particularly prominent.Stable youth employment is a major policy imperative for China to strengthen the institutional framework for ensuring and improving people's livelihood in the new era.Amid the rise of the digital economy,new forms of employment—such as flexible and delayed entry into the workforce—have intensified labor mobility,prompting continuous evolution in the theoretical understanding of youth employment stability alongside broader labor market transformations.This study utilizes data from the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)to calculate the Markov transition matrix of youth employment statuses,innovatively constructs key indicators to accurately measure employment stability under multi-state transitions,and quantitatively assesses the dynamic trajectory of youth employment stability.Findings reveal that,during the three observation periods(2016-2018,2018-2020,and 2020-2022),the model-implied state share among young people was consistently higher than the corresponding contemporaneously observed state share in the sample,indicating an insufficiency of youth employment stability.Gender-disaggregated analysis shows that the employment stability of female youth is confronted with structural challenges,with low reemployment rates among younger female youth being a key factor undermining their stability.In contrast,male youth employment exhibited notable stability in the first two observation periods but experienced a sharp reversal in 2020-2022,highlighting their heightened sensitivity to macroeconomic shocks.Accordingly,institutional reforms should shift from prioritizing first-entry employment toward a dual emphasis on initial placement and labor market resilience across the full youth employment cycle.Future policy must focus on building a targeted support system centered on raising female youth's reemployment rates,thereby advancing gender equality in the labor market.关键词
青年群体/马尔可夫转移矩阵/就业稳定性/性别差异/失业Key words
the youth/Markov transition matrix/employment stability/gender difference/unemployment分类
社会科学引用本文复制引用
陆杰华,王笑非..多状态转换矩阵视角下青年就业稳定性再探究[J].人口与经济,2026,47(5):105-119,15.基金项目
北京市社会科学基金青年项目"数字经济背景下北京青年就业稳定性测度、挑战和政策响应"(25BJ03055). （25BJ03055）
