蔬菜Issue(8)：92-106,15.DOI:10.26924/j.cnki.sczz.2026.8007
基于多源数据融合与智能预警的2025年中国大蒜全产业链大数据画像
Based on Multi-source Data Fusion and Intelligent Early Warning,Big Data Profiling of the Whole Industry Chain of China's Garlic in 2025
摘要
Abstract
Current research on garlic mostly focuses on single-factor fluctuation causes or localized regional analysis,lacking a systematic characterization of the entire industrial chain supported by multi-source data.This paper aims to construct a big data profile of the entire garlic industry chain,reveal the operating patterns of the industry and the supply-demand transmission mechanism,and provide a scientific basis for precise industrial regulation and business decision-making.By integrating multi-source heterogeneous data from 2015 to 2025,including remote sensing monitoring,meteorological observations,field surveys,market circulation,macro trade and industry statistics,this study establishes a data profiling framework for the whole garlic industry chain covering production supply,inventory,processing,consumption,international trade,cost-effectiveness and market prices.Random forest supervised classification is used to extract the spatial distribution of planting,and statistical analysis and correlation analysis are combined to examine the operating characteristics of each link.A price forecasting model based on the variational mode decomposition-temporal convolutional attention network(VMD-TCAN)optimized by particle swarm optimization is constructed,and hyperparameter optimization and accuracy validation are carried out through Bayesian optimization.The results show that in 2025,the national garlic planting area was 855 300 hm2,total output was 15.92 million t,and cold storage inventory in September reached 5.05 million t,all at high levels in recent years.Domestic consumption totaled 12.43 million t,while exports showed a pattern of increasing volume and declining prices.The industry as a whole follows the transmission logic of'supply expansion-inventory accumulation-price decline-benefit contraction',and there are core problems such as low export added value,insufficient driving force from deep processing,and lagging inventory regulation capacity.The VMD-TCAN model can accurately capture multi-scale price fluctuation patterns and the nonlinear effects of external factors,with excellent fitting performance and strong generalization ability.It is predicted that in 2026,Jinxiang garlic prices will mainly range from 3 to 6 yuan/kg,showing a pattern of first declining and then stabilizing at a low level throughout the year.This study can provide data support and methodological reference for monitoring and early warning of the entire garlic industry chain and for its high-quality upgrading.关键词
大蒜/产业/大数据画像/供给预测/价格波动/成本效益分析/模型/变分模态分解Key words
garlic/industry/big data profiling/supply forecasting/price fluctuation/cost-effectiveness analysis/model/variational mode decomposition分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
周浩男,柳平增,朱浩楠,朱珂,张艳,刘彭,许世卫..基于多源数据融合与智能预警的2025年中国大蒜全产业链大数据画像[J].蔬菜,2026,(8):92-106,15.基金项目
2025年山东省农业重大技术协同推广计划(SDNYXTTG-2025-27). （SDNYXTTG-2025-27）
