山东电力技术2026，Vol.53Issue(8)：27-36,10.DOI:10.20097/j.cnki.issn1007-9904.250282
考虑日周期爬坡特性的光伏年度功率序列建模方法
Photovoltaic Annual Power Sequence Modeling Method Considering Daily Cycle Ramping Characteristics
摘要
Abstract
In recent years,photovoltaic ramping events have made a great impact on system flexibility,frequently causing light abandonment and load shedding phenomena.It is of great significance to establish a photovoltaic annual power sequence model that can better reproduce the ramping characteristics of historical data for system flexibility planning considering the impact of high-penetration photovoltaic integration.To improve the characterization capability of ramping characteristics in photovoltaic annual power sequence modeling,firstly,the feature points of the daily output curves of photovoltaics are extracted by the swinging door algorithm and the daily ramping characteristic indices are established.Based on the index differences,the daily output curves of photovoltaics are clustered to classify ramping day types.Then,the Markov chain Monte Carlo method is used to generate the daily type sequence of the whole year.The Copula function is used to construct the positions of down-ramping feature points under different day types,and the daily power sequence is generated day by day according to the position of the feature points combined with cubic Hermite interpolation.The case study results show that the proposed method can achieve high-precision restoration of photovoltaic historical data in output distribution,temporal characteristics and ramping characteristics,which verifies the effectiveness of the proposed method.关键词
功率序列建模/爬坡特性/旋转门算法/Copula函数/马尔可夫链蒙特卡洛Key words
power sequence modeling/ramping characteristics/swinging door algorithm/Copula function/Markov Chain Monte Carlo分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
顾嘉斌,顾中,温兴文,陈盼,高瑜焓,孙嘉诚..考虑日周期爬坡特性的光伏年度功率序列建模方法[J].山东电力技术,2026,53(8):27-36,10.基金项目
国网上海市电力公司科技项目"基于广义参量的分布式光伏出力曲线形态智能构建方法技术研究"(SGTYHT/21-JS-223). Science and Technology Project of State Grid Shanghai Electric Power Company"Research on Intelligent Construction Method of Distributed Photovoltaic Output Curve Shape Based on Generalized Parameters"(SGTYHT/21-JS-223). （SGTYHT/21-JS-223）
