海洋气象学报2026，Vol.46Issue(4)：21-31,11.DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.hyqxxb.20260209001
2025年山东秋季连阴雨的极端性及成因分析
Analysis on extremity and causes of continuous overcast and rainy weather in Shandong in autumn 2025
摘要
Abstract
Based on the NCEP reanalysis data,NOAA sea surface temperature data and the observations of 122 national surface meteorological stations in Shandong,we investigate the precipitation and circulation characteristics of the continuous overcast and rainy weather in Shandong in autumn 2025,and conduct a comparative analysis with the continuous overcast and rainy weather in the same historical periods.The results are as follows.(1)From 1 to 13 October 2025,an extreme regional continuous overcast and rainy event occurred in Shandong,and its duration,cumulative rainfall and affected areas all top the historical records for the same periods since 1951.The provincial average precipitation reaches 141.3 mm,the precipitation is mainly concentrated in northwestern Shandong and the northern part of central Shandong,and the process precipitation at 20 stations including Zouping exceeds 200 mm.(2)The causal analysis shows that,a La Niña condition over the equatorial central and eastern Pacific favors the enhancement of the Ural blocking high,the activity of mid-latitude central Asia trough and a northward-displaced ridge line of the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),providing favorable air-sea background for this extreme autumn rainfall.(3)During the continuous autumn processes in the same historical periods in Shandong,the Ural ridge and the WPSH maintain stably.Cold air moves eastward and southward accompanied by the mid-latitude central Asia trough,or moves southward via the backflow of the East Asia trough.Abundant water vapor is transported from the Bay of Bengal and the Pacific Ocean.The ridge line of the WPSH is positioned northward and the water vapor is transported northward along the western periphery of the WPSH.The convergence of cold and warm air over Shandong favors the formation of the continuous overcast and rainy event.(4)The comparative analysis with 4 continuous overcast and rainy events in the same historical periods shows that,during the event in 2025,the mid-high latitude circulation and the WPSH remain stable,and the WPSH persists westward,northward and intensified,leading to this event with the longest duration and highest precipitation.Among them,the persistently northward and intensified WPSH is the key factor for the extremity.关键词
秋季连阴雨/大气环流/西太平洋副热带高压/拉尼娜Key words
continuous overcast and rainy weather in autumn/atmospheric circulation/western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)/La Niña分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
商林,孟祥新,汤子东,邢雅敏,陈君芝,孔祥宁..2025年山东秋季连阴雨的极端性及成因分析[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(4):21-31,11.基金项目
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2026-073) （FPZJ2026-073）
黄河流域气象联合开放基金项目(HHJJ2026M07) （HHJJ2026M07）
山东省气象局重点项目(2025sdqxz13) （2025sdqxz13）
山东省气象局重大天气过程专项(2025SDTQ03) （2025SDTQ03）
