海洋气象学报2026，Vol.46Issue(4)：32-43,12.DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.hyqxxb.20260213001
2025年山东秋季连阴雨成因分析
Analysis on causes of continuous overcast and rainy weather in Shandong in autumn 2025
摘要
Abstract
From 1 to 18 October 2025,a rare continuous overcast and rainy event with insufficient sunshine occurred in Shandong during the autumn harvest and sowing period,featuring long duration,distinct stages,large accumulated rainfall and the combination of continuous overcast and rain and local rainstorm.Using surface meteorological observations,NCEP reanalysis data,ERA5 data and the HYSPLIT(Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory)model,this study analyzes the causes of the event.The results are shown below.(1)During this event,the western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH)is significantly stronger than the climatological normal,with its ridge line 4.5 latitudes northward and westward-extending ridge point 10.2 longitudes westward of the multi-year average.Meanwhile,the Siberian high undergoes two intensification processes successively during the event.The anomalously strong WPSH and continuously intensified Siberian high jointly form the climatic background for this event.(2)Throughout the event,the Eurasian continent maintains a typical"two troughs and one ridge"circulation pattern.Significant southwest airflow anomalies and positive air temperature anomalies are observed at 700 hPa and 850 hPa.The upper-level westerly jet at 200 hPa is much stronger than the climatological normal and shifts 5-10 latitudes northward.Such large-scale circulation configuration favors the maintenance and gradual development of the event.(3)Ranked by the water vapor contribution rate,the main sources of water vapor are sequentially the East China Sea,the Bay of Bengal,the South China Sea and the Atlantic Ocean,which are closely related to marine tropical cyclone activities.(4)During the heavy rainfall period of the event,the lower troposphere features MPV2 lower than 0 with weak conditional symmetric instability,providing unstable stratification conditions for the intensification of rainfall.关键词
连阴雨/成因分析/水汽来源/MPV2Key words
continuous overcast and rainy weather/causal analysis/source of water vapor/MPV2分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
谢晓华,朱义青,刘新磊,朱国辉..2025年山东秋季连阴雨成因分析[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(4):32-43,12.基金项目
中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2024-074) （FPZJ2024-074）
山东省自然科学基金项目(ZR2025LQX011,ZR2023MD125) （ZR2025LQX011,ZR2023MD125）
山东省气象局引导类项目(2024SDYS38) （2024SDYS38）
