海洋气象学报2026，Vol.46Issue(4)：67-78,12.DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.hyqxxb.20260106001
2021年和2025年山东秋季阴雨气候环流特征及其对农业影响的对比分析
Comparative analysis on climatic circulation characteristics and agricultural impacts of autumn overcast and rainy weather in Shandong in 2021 and 2025
摘要
Abstract
Based on data of 122 national meteorological observing stations,soil moisture observations and agricultural data in Shandong,as well as NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data,the spatial and temporal distributions,intensity differences,circulation characteristics and agricultural impacts of autumn overcast and rain in 2021 and 2025 are compared and analyzed.The results are as follows.(1)The autumn precipitation in Shandong in 2021 and 2025 is significantly more,but the characteristics of overcast and rainy processes are significantly different.The average precipitation and precipitation days in the province from 11 September to 20 October 2025 are 317.8 mm and 23.2 d,respectively,both ranking the first in the same period since 1961;in 2021,they are 208.1 mm and 16.1 d,respectively,ranking the second in the same period.In 2025,the proportion of stations with continuous overcast and rain is higher,the regional consistency is stronger,and the intensity index is 31.6％higher than that in 2021,indicating that its continuity and cumulative impact are stronger than those in 2021.(2)The overcast and rainy processes in 2021 and 2025 occur under the background of the stable maintenance of the"two ridges and one trough"circulation pattern in the middle and high latitudes of Eurasia,the stronger and northward western Pacific subtropical high(WPSH),and the enhanced transfer of warm and humid air in the lower troposphere.Compared with 2021,the control range of the WPSH in 2025 is larger,the ridge line is further northward,the low-level convergence over Shandong is more obvious,and the transfer of water vapor and ascending motion conditions are better,which are important reasons for the longer duration and wider range of the precipitation.(3)The duration of farmland overwetting is short in 2021,and the winter wheat yield in 2022 is not significantly affected due to the sufficient heat compensation before winter.The range of farmland overwetting is wider and the duration is longer in 2025,and the autumn harvest and sowing are significantly delayed compared with those in 2021.Late sowing leads to insufficient heat,and the seedling condition of wheat before winter is obviously weak,which increases the difficulty of later management and the uncertainty of stable yield.关键词
阴雨/强度指数/大气环流形势/农业影响/山东Key words
overcast and rainy weather/intensity index/atmospheric circulation pattern/agricultural impact/Shandong分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
邓宇涵,刘慎彬,徐玮平,信志红,张乾,陈辰,张继波..2021年和2025年山东秋季阴雨气候环流特征及其对农业影响的对比分析[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(4):67-78,12.基金项目
山东省气象局科研项目(2025sdqxz03,2024SDQN03,2023SDBD15) （2025sdqxz03,2024SDQN03,2023SDBD15）
