海洋气象学报2026，Vol.46Issue(4)：103-113,11.DOI:10.19513/j.cnki.hyqxxb.20250909002
ECMWF数值模式对中韩航线海域灾害性大风的预报效果检验
Verification of ECMWF numerical model's forecast effect on disastrous strong winds in the China-Korea shipping route sea area
摘要
Abstract
Using the wind field data from 11 observing stations(two coastal stations and 9 buoy stations)in the central Yellow Sea and ECMWF 10-m wind forecast data from 2016 to 2021,this study systematically evaluates the bias characteristics of numerical model forecasts for disastrous strong winds in the China-Korea shipping route sea area by applying correlation analysis,threat score(TS)and error verification methods.The results are as follows.(1)The ECMWF model has a relatively high correlation with the observed wind speed(R=0.81,passing the significance test at the 0.01 level),but the wind speed is systematically overestimated by approximately 1 m·s-1.The TS shows a significant downward trend as the wind force increases,and both the false alarm rate and missing rate of strong winds above force 8 exceed 50％.(2)The wind direction forecast exhibits a feature of counterclockwise deflection,and the accuracy of the comprehensive wind forecast is lower than the half of individual accuracy of wind direction and wind speed forecasts.(3)The spatial distribution indicates that the wind speed errors at offshore stations are significantly higher than those at open seas,with the southern coastal stations being more pronounced.关键词
中韩航线海域/灾害性大风/ECMWF模式/效果检验Key words
China-Korea shipping route sea area/disastrous strong wind/ECMWF model/effect verification分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
万超,盛春岩,连帆,张灿,孙倩倩,王迪..ECMWF数值模式对中韩航线海域灾害性大风的预报效果检验[J].海洋气象学报,2026,46(4):103-113,11.基金项目
山东省气象局科研项目(2021sdqxm08,2025sdqxm20) （2021sdqxm08,2025sdqxm20）
山东省自然科学基金创新发展联合基金项目(ZR2024LQX009) （ZR2024LQX009）
