天然气与石油2026，Vol.44Issue(4)：10-20,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-5539.2026.04.002
基于先验分布的成品油管道停输数据有效性校验方法
A prior distribution-based validation method for shutdown data validity in refined oil pipelines
摘要
Abstract
Pressure monitoring of long-distance refined oil pipelines under shutdown conditions is a critical approach for leak detection and pipeline safety assurance.With the advancement of industrial intelligence,pressure prediction technologies based on various machine learning algorithms have been widely applied.However,existing models generally lack physical consistency validation of initial input data.If the input data contains early leakage characteristics or sensor drift,it can easily lead to false alarms or missed detections in subsequent predictions.To address this issue,this paper proposes an initial pressure data validation method based on prior distribution statistical theory.The method is grounded in the thermo-hydraulic coupling mechanism during shutdown processes and innovatively introduces the"Twenty-four solar terms"as a discretized representation of environmental thermodynamic characteristics to establish prior distributions of pressure change rates under different shutdown durations.The model effectively identifies abnormal pressure fluctuations while maintaining an extremely low false alarm rate(5.0%),achieving a detection rate of 97.5%for minor leaks with flow coefficient≤0.10 and 100%detection rate for leak conditions with flow coefficient≥0.15,thereby providing high-confidence input data for subsequent machine learning prediction models.关键词
成品油管道/停输压力/先验分布/二十四节气Key words
Refined oil pipeline/Shut-down pressure/Prior distribution/Twenty-four solar terms引用本文复制引用
杨文,吴玥蓉,黄晓茵,李晓平,李苗,宫敬..基于先验分布的成品油管道停输数据有效性校验方法[J].天然气与石油,2026,44(4):10-20,11.基金项目
国家石油天然气管网集团有限公司华南分公司项目"长输成品油管道停输期管内压力变化预测模型及系统开发"(HNGS-SSCC202401) （HNGS-SSCC202401）
