西北水电Issue(4)：1-9,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2610.2026.04.001
西藏尼都藏布流域金翁错冰湖溃决原因及其危险性评价
Causes and Hazard Assessment of Outburst of Jinwengcuo Glacial Lake in the Nidu Zangbo Basin,Xizang
摘要
Abstract
To investigate the formation mechanism of the Jinwengcuo glacial lake outburst and conduct hazard assessment,and provide sci-entific support for the prevention and mitigation of regional glacial lake outburst disasters,the"6·26"Jinwengcuo glacial lake outburst event in 2020 was taken as the research object.Remote sensing geology and geographic information technology combined with field surveys were adopted.DEM elevation data,Landsat 8 OLI and radar satellite data,together with field measured data of flood peak discharge and water surface elevation,were used for comparative analysis before and after the outburst and disaster evaluation.Through preprocessing and interpretation of remote sensing images,meteorological and hydrological data analysis,and quantitative calculation of hydrological ob-servation data,the development characteristics of the glacial lake,outburst evolution process and hydrodynamic characteristics of the out-burst flood were clarified.The results show that the glacial lake experienced a partial outburst.The sharp rise of lake water level triggered by mountain landslides under heavy rainfall was the primary cause of the outburst,while lake entry of avalanches induced by rising tem-perature served as the secondary trigger.After the outburst,the lake area shrank significantly,with the storage capacity reduced by 4.4×106～5.0×106 m3,and the maximum flood peak discharge reached1 360 m3/s.This study identifies the subsequent risk trend of the glacial lake and proposes engineering treatment schemes as well as early warning and monitoring measures,which can offer technical ref-erences for research on similar glacial lake outbursts and disaster prevention on the Qinghai-Xizang Plateau.关键词
冰湖/冰湖溃决型泥石流/危险性评价/洪峰流量/尼都藏布Key words
glacial lake/glacial lake outburst debris flow/hazard assessment/flood peak discharge/Nidu Zangbo分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈海云,李常虎,李征征,王群,王璋,魏玉峰..西藏尼都藏布流域金翁错冰湖溃决原因及其危险性评价[J].西北水电,2026,(4):1-9,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFC1501000) （2017YFC1501000）
