西北水电Issue(4)：35-43,9.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1006-2610.2026.04.005
汉江上游流域基流演变特征及其归因分析
Characteristics and attribution analysis of baseflow evolution in the upper Hanjiang River Basin
摘要
Abstract
Analysis of Base Flow Evolution Characteristics and Its Driving Factors in the Upper Han River Basin serves as a critical founda-tion for safeguarding regional water security,guaranteeing the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project,maintaining the health of river ecosystems,and underpinning socio-economic development.To systematically evaluate the applicability of different base flow separation methods in this basin,reveal the variation rules of base flow,and quantify the relative contributions of climatic factors and human activities to base flow changes,this study takes the watershed controlled by Baihe Hydrological Station as the research area and adopts its hydrometeorological data from 2001 to 2020.Six base flow separation methods including the digital filtering method and the SWAT-Bflow method are compared for their applicability.The interannual and intra-annual evolution characteristics of base flow are investigated,and the impacts of climate change and human activities on base flow variations are assessed by combining multiple linear regression and double mass curve approaches.The results show that among the six separation methods,the Boughton-Chapman method achieves the highest accuracy:its average base flow index is 0.487,the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient is 0.55,the Kling-Gupta efficiency coefficient is 0.65,and the average relative error is23.82%.Its separation outputs can reflect the stability and hysteresis of base flow,and the hydrograph conforms to the variation characteristics of total runoff.On the interannual scale,base flow volume exhib-its a slight increasing trend with an annual growth rate of 142 million cubic meters per year.On the intra-annual scale,base flow pres-ents a single-peak pattern,while the annual average base flow index shows no significant temporal discrepancy.Multiple linear regression analysis indicates that monthly precipitation exerts a stronger influence on base flow variations than antecedent precipitation and temperature.Double mass curve analysis reveals that human activities constitute the dominant driver of rising base flow against the backdrop of changing climatic conditions,with a contribution rate of 128.76%.The findings of this research can provide scien-tific support for water resources management and the assessment of water conservation functions in the Upper Han River Basin.关键词
汉江上游/基流分割/基流指数/归因分析Key words
Upper Han River Basin/base flow separation/Base Flow Index(BFI)/attribution analysis分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
郑浩,魏钰昔,屈旭东,李婧,徐国策,王斌,林洋..汉江上游流域基流演变特征及其归因分析[J].西北水电,2026,(4):35-43,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(42377344) （42377344）
