水资源与水工程学报2026，Vol.37Issue(4)：64-72,9.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2026.04.08
基于多尺度气候因子的喀斯特地区气象干旱驱动分析
Driving force analysis of meteorological drought in karst regions based on multi-scale climatic factors
摘要
Abstract
To unravel the multi-scale driving mechanisms of meteorological droughts in karst regions,we calculated the SPEI at 1-,3-,6-,and 12-month time scales using data from 31 meteorological stations in Guizhou Province from 2000 to 2023.Correlation analysis,wavelet analysis,and geographical detector techniques were used to analyze the spatiotemporal evolution of meteorological drought and its formation mechanisms under the combined influence of global atmospheric circulation and local environmental fac-tors.The results indicate that drought intensity showed a slight but statistically insignificant weakening trend overall at temporal scale.Spatially,areas with high drought frequency were concentrated in the southwestern and eastern regions,where karst development is most pronounced.The driving mechanisms exhibited significant scale dependence.Specifically,the PNA factor of the atmospheric circulation pattern had the strongest direct influence on monthly-scale drought,and the influence are often ahead of time.The MEI.V2 controlled the longest-period oscillation of seasonal-scale droughts but with a 1.5-month lag,suggesting a potential modulating role of karst water storage.Droughts at longer scales were influ-enced by the combined effect of low-frequency circulations such as NAO and PDO.Among local factors,precipitation and wind speed were the main driving sources,and the interaction between the two factors showed a nonlinear enhancement effect,with the coupling of NDVI and meteorological factors being par-ticularly crucial.The scale-dependent driving framework of"large-scale circulation triggering and multi-factor nonlinear synergy"constructed in this study can provide technical support for precise regional drought prevention and control.关键词
气候变化/气象干旱/多尺度驱动/地理探测器/小波分析/喀斯特地区/贵州省Key words
climate change/meteorological drought/multi-scale driver/geographical detector/wavelet analysis/karst region/Guizhou Province分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
杨秋云,贺中华,余欢,郭站群,杨玉华,杨梅..基于多尺度气候因子的喀斯特地区气象干旱驱动分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2026,37(4):64-72,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(u1612441、41471032) （u1612441、41471032）
贵州省自然科学基金项目(黔科合基础-ZK[2023]重点028) （黔科合基础-ZK[2023]重点028）
贵州省水利厅自然科学基金项目(KT202517、KT202237) （KT202517、KT202237）
