西南农业学报2026，Vol.39Issue(7)：1503-1512,10.DOI:10.16213/j.cnki.scjas.2026.7.008
大理州红花大金元种植适宜性评价方法研究
Evaluation methods for planting suitability of Honghuadajinyuan in Dali Prefecture
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The study aims to compare the performance of the Maximum Entropy(MaxEnt)model and machine learning(ML)algorithms in predicting the potential suitable planting areas for Honghuadajinyuan tobacco in Dali Prefecture,so as to reveal the applicability and advantages of different modeling strategies.[Method]Using 309 field-surveyed occurrence records and environmental covariates related to climate,soil and topography,the differences in potential distribution patterns generated by the two approaches were assessed.[Result]The MaxEnt model showed strong overall predictive performance,with an AUC of 0.941 for the training set and 0.873 for the test set.Among the machine learning models,Bagging-MLP performed well in suitability type classification,with an AUC of 0.937 for the training set and 0.852 for the test set.However,in suitability level classification,the test set AUC decreased to 0.703,indicating reduced generalization ability.The RF model performed best in unsuitable level classification,achieving an AUC of 0.992 for the training set and 0.846 for the test set.Variable importance rankings differed across methods,with MaxEnt highlighting topographic and climatic factors,while ML emphasized the combined influence of soil nutrients and vegetation indices.Both approaches revealed a high degree of spatial overlap in predicted suitable areas,prima-rily located in northeastern Weishan,northeastern Eryuan and northwestern Midu.[Conclusion]Machine-learning algorithms outperform MaxEnt in assessing the suitability of Honghuadajinyuan tobacco cultivation in Dali Prefecture,delivering more continuous and stable predic-tions that can scientifically guide regional planning for this characteristic crop.关键词
最大熵模型/机器学习算法/红花大金元/适宜性评价/大理州Key words
Maximum entropy/Machine learning/Honghuadajinyuan/Suitability evaluation/Dali Prefecture分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
苑钰珂,翁倩文,李娟,张炳峰,史宏志,马月红,陈伟强..大理州红花大金元种植适宜性评价方法研究[J].西南农业学报,2026,39(7):1503-1512,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2021YFD1700900) （2021YFD1700900）
中国烟草总公司云南省公司科技项目(30802431) （30802431）
