管理学刊2026，Vol.39Issue(4)：77-90,14.DOI:10.19808/j.cnki.41-1408/F.2026.0044
土地财政依赖、隐性债务扩张与经济高质量发展
Land Finance Dependence,Hidden Debt Expansion and High-Quality Economic Development:A Perspective Based on Vertical Fiscal Imbalance
摘要
Abstract
Understanding the evolutionary logic and interactive relationship between local government fiscal behavior and the quality of local economic development under the fiscal decentralization system is of important practical significance for deepening fiscal and taxation reform and promoting high-quality economic development.From the perspective of vertical fiscal imbalance,this study employs a semiparametric spatial panel vector autoregressive model,complemented by a spatial Durbin model for robustness testing,to systematically examine the nonlinear impacts of vertical fiscal imbalance on land finance dependence,hidden debt expansion,and high-quality economic development,as well as the spatiotemporal transmission effects among the three.The results show that the impact of vertical fiscal imbalance exhibits a three-stage pattern,characterized overall by a dynamic evolutionary path of short-term incentive,medium-term constraint,and long-term forcing adjustment.Land finance dependence,hidden debt expansion,and high-quality economic development all display self-reinforcing and spatial agglomeration effects,and the impulse responses among them show heterogeneous transmission associated with geographic proximity and the degree of economic linkage.By focusing on optimizing central-local fiscal relations and regulating local government fiscal behavior,this study provides theoretical grounding and empirical support for promoting high-quality economic development.关键词
财政纵向失衡/土地财政依赖/隐性债务扩张/经济高质量发展Key words
vertical fiscal imbalance/land finance dependence/hidden debt expansion/high-quality economic development分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
刘敏,方俊,平卫英..土地财政依赖、隐性债务扩张与经济高质量发展[J].管理学刊,2026,39(4):77-90,14.基金项目
国家社会科学基金重大项目(24&ZD078) （24&ZD078）
江西省社会科学规划重点项目(24ZXQH14) （24ZXQH14）
中国博士后科学基金(2024T170363) （2024T170363）
