烟草科技2026，Vol.59Issue(9)：90-102,13.DOI:10.16135/j.issn1002-0861.2025.0510
基于零售终端数据治理的卷烟市场状态监测研究
Cigarette market state monitoring based on retail terminal data governance
摘要
Abstract
A set of monitoring methods for domestic cigarette market state based on retail terminal data governance was proposed to address the common problems of uneven quality,distorted QR code data and false inventory reporting in cigarette retail terminal data,which led to insufficient accuracy in the market state assessment.Cigarette market state monitoring methods based on retail terminal data governance were proposed and an integrated analysis framework of"data governance-state assessment"was built.At the data governance stage,firstly,cluster analysis was used to remove significantly abnormal terminals.Secondly,the maximum empirical likelihood density method was used to standardize the index scores.Thirdly,a latent factor model(LFM)was introduced to conduct a comprehensive evaluation on the data quality of retail terminals to select high-quality retail terminal samples.At the state evaluation stage,based on the selected high-quality terminals,a market state index system integrating dimensions of order sufficiency coverages,order sufficiency rates,gross profit margins,and salable days was constructed.After preprocessing the product specification data and calculating the composite scores,a Gaussian mixture model(GMM)was used to quantitatively divided the market state thresholds,and each product specification was mapped into five market status levels of"hot,tight,balanced,loose,and weak".The empirical analysis showed that this method effectively improved the accuracy of monitoring results and was highly consistent with the actual market conditions,providing a scientific basis for the formulation of precise cigarette marketing strategies.关键词
零售终端数据治理/市场状态监测/聚类分析/潜在因子模型/高斯混合模型Key words
Retail terminal data governance/Market state monitoring/Clustering analysis/Latent factor model/Gaussian mixture model分类
轻工纺织引用本文复制引用
姜思明,刘荣,谭升达,郭航宇,许谨致,谢鸿,蔡颖嘉,黄淇..基于零售终端数据治理的卷烟市场状态监测研究[J].烟草科技,2026,59(9):90-102,13.基金项目
广东省烟草专卖局(公司)科技项目"卷烟市场容量与社会库存测算模式的研究"(粤烟科项202208) （公司）
广东烟草阳江市有限责任公司科技项目"卷烟市场现代终端数据采集质量提升研究与应用"(阳烟科项202301) （阳烟科项202301）
中国烟草总公司重大科技项目计划项目"基于消费需求意见提取与设计语言转化的消费洞察技术研究"[110202401032(SZ-06)]. （SZ-06）
