眼科新进展2026，Vol.46Issue(9)：722-728,7.DOI:10.13389/j.cnki.rao.2026.0125
1990-2023年中国失明与视力损伤疾病负担:基于GBD 2023的分析与预测
Disease burden of blindness and vision loss in China from 1990 to 2023:Analy-sis and prediction based on GBD 2023
田苗 1李胜 1张洁 1梁丽金 1袁卫玲1
作者信息
- 1. 301617 天津市,天津中医药大学中医学院
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
Objective To analyze the changing trends and influencing factors of the disease burden of blindness and vision loss(BVL)in China from 1990 to 2023,and to predict the trend of BVL disease burden in China from 2024 to 2050.Methods Data on the number of patients,prevalence rate,disability-adjusted life year(DALYs),and age-standardized rate(ASR)for BVL in different genders and age groups in China from 1990 to 2023 were obtained from the GBD 2023 data-base.The Joinpoint regression model and decomposition analysis were used to quantify the effects of population aging,pop-ulation growth,and epidemiological changes.The autoregressive moving average model was adopted to predict the age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)for BVL in China during the period 2024-2050.Results From 1990 to 2023,the number of BVL patients in China increased from 88.680 3 million to 218.468 6 million;DALYs rose from 3.104 7 million to 5.782 4 million;the age-standardized prevalence rate(ASPR)decreased from 10 148.94 per 100 000 population to 9 740.56 per 100 000 population;ASDR declined from 379.08 per 100 000 population to 263.22 per 100 000 population.Joinpoint analysis revealed fluctuating downward trends in both the ASPR and ASDR for BVL from 1990 to 2023,with an average annual per-cent change of-0.13％(P＜0.05)and-1.09％(P＜0.05),respectively.The prevalence of BVL increased with age and peaked in the population aged 95 years and above.Near vision loss,refractive error,and cataract were the top three causes of BVL.Decomposition analysis showed that population aging and population growth drove the rise in disease burden,while epidemiological changes exerted a reducing effect.Predicting results indicated that BVL ASDR in China would maintain a downward trend from 2024 to 2050.Conclusion From 1990 to 2023,the disease burden of BVL in China is characterized by rising absolute values but declining age-standardized values,with higher morbidity in the elderly and female populations.Near vision loss,refractive error,and cataract are the predominant causes.The ASDR for BVL is predicted to decrease from 2024 to 2050.关键词
失明与视力损伤/疾病负担/伤残调整寿命年/老龄化/自回归移动平均模型Key words
blindness and vision loss/disease burden/disability-adjusted life year/aging/autoregressive moving aver-age model分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
田苗,李胜,张洁,梁丽金,袁卫玲..1990-2023年中国失明与视力损伤疾病负担:基于GBD 2023的分析与预测[J].眼科新进展,2026,46(9):722-728,7.
