中国城市林业2026，Vol.24Issue(4)：25-33,9.DOI:10.12169/zgcsly.2025.09.11.0003
基于CASA模型的上海城市森林碳汇估算
Estimation of Shanghai's Urban Forest Carbon Sink Based on CASA Model
摘要
Abstract
[Objective]The study aims to carry out rapid and accurate estimation of carbon sequestration capacity of urban forests and its spatiotemporal distribution,with the aim to provide scientific data for the assessment of urban forests'"carbon neutrality".[Method]Taking Minhang District in Shanghai as the study area,this paper estimates the carbon sink of its urban forests in 2021 based on the CASA model,analyzes the spatial distribution pattern and seasonal variation characteristics of urban forest carbon sink at the regional scale,and quantitatively evaluates the carbon sequestration capacity of different types of urban forest.[Result]1)The urban forest carbon sink in Minhang District presents the characteristics of large-scale agglomeration.The total carbon sink of urban forests in the District in 2021 was at 76 243.84 t CO2,and the mean carbon sink per unit area at 1 352.35 g CO2•m-2,which shows an overall distribution pattern of higher in the northern and southern parts and lower in the central part;2)The urban forest carbon sink in the District follows a typical unimodal pattern during the growing season,driven by climatic factors and vegetation phenological rhythms.The urban forest carbon sink in there is mainly sequestered in the 2nd and 3rd quarters,accounting for about 95%of the annual carbon sequestration;3)The carbon sequestration capacity varies across different vegetation types in Minhang District.Evergreen broad-leaved forests have the highest annual carbon sink,accounting for 74.73%of the total carbon sink in the District;bamboo forests have the strongest carbon sink capacity,while the carbon sink per unit area is 1 518.18 g CO2•m-2;and 4)Multi-method cross-validation shows that the CASA model estimates deviate approximately 15%compared with those obtained using the inventory-based method,the plot measurement method and similar model studies,which converge to the same order of magnitude.[Conclusion]The urban forest carbon sink patterns in Minhang District exhibit differentiated characteristics across spatiotemporal distribution,seasonal allocation and vegetation types.Spatially,vegetation patch size and spatial connectivity are the key factors regulating carbon sink patterns in urban areas.Temporally,carbon sink follows a unimodal pattern heavily concentrated in the growing season,while climate and seasonal variability is the core driving force behind the temporal heterogeneity of carbon sinks.Different types of vegetation show a divergence between total contribution and unit-area efficiency in carbon sink functions.The CASA model is confirmed to have good applicability in urbanized areas.Future research could further improve estimation accuracy by developing high-resolution remote sensing datasets,establishing localized parameter databases and developing integrated multi-model estimation systems,thereby providing technical support for urban forest carbon sink accounting and the implementation of"Dual Carbon"goals.关键词
城市森林/碳汇估算/CASA模型/上海市Key words
urban forests/carbon sink estimation/CASA model/Shanghai引用本文复制引用
邢璐琪,易扬,张桂莲..基于CASA模型的上海城市森林碳汇估算[J].中国城市林业,2026,24(4):25-33,9.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3802605) （2022YFC3802605）
上海市绿化和市容管理局科研专项(GQ260202) （GQ260202）
上海市青年科技英才杨帆计划(22YF1444000) （22YF1444000）
