中国电机工程学报2026，Vol.46Issue(18)：6580-6596,中插1,18.DOI:10.13334/j.0258-8013.pcsee.260151
煤电-新能源-储能多异质主体动态演化下的多市场耦合仿真与系统韧性评估方法
Multi-market Coupling Simulation and System Resilience Evaluation Method Considering Dynamic Evolution of Multiple Heterogeneous Entities With Coal-fired Power,Renewable Energy and Energy Storage
摘要
Abstract
To tackle resilience assessment challenges in complex,uncertain,and heterogeneous energy systems within a multi-market environment,this paper introduces an integrated resilience assessment and simulation approach for energy supply chains,integrating dynamic evolution of heterogeneous entities and multi-market collaboration.First,a dynamic evolution model is established for three heterogeneous entities(coal-fired power,renewable energy,and energy storage)by integrating multi-dimensional state variables(e.g.,technical status,fuel inventory,carbon quotas),capturing their decision-making and state-transition dynamics across interconnected electricity-coal-carbon markets.Second,leveraging mean field game theory,a multi-market coupled simulation framework is developed,reducing dimensionality through mean field distribution to reveal bidirectional interactions between macro-system states and micro-entity decisions.Additionally,a three-dimensional resilience evaluation index system(adaptability,resilience,economy)is integrated into a risk-averse,partially observed optimal control framework for quantifying the impact of entity decisions on system resilience.Finally,a distributed solution algorithm based on the alternating direction method of multipliers(ADMM)is proposed in order to ensure simulation efficiency and accuracy.Using the Northwest China power grid as a case study,scenarios such as stable coal supply,fuel shortages,and external shocks are tested.The results show that the proposed method effectively captures dynamic entity evolution and multi-market price linkages,accurately evaluates system resilience under diverse disturbances,and provides scientific support for energy market regulation and resilience-enhancement strategies.关键词
能源供应链韧性/异质主体/动态演化/多市场耦合/平均场博弈Key words
energy supply chain resilience/heterogeneous entities/dynamic evolution/multi-market coupling/mean field game分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
朱彦恺,黄玉晶,王庆华,陈运启,杜忠明,房方,刘吉臻..煤电-新能源-储能多异质主体动态演化下的多市场耦合仿真与系统韧性评估方法[J].中国电机工程学报,2026,46(18):6580-6596,中插1,18.基金项目
煤炭重大专项(2024ZD1700300). Coal-Major Project(2024ZD1700300). （2024ZD1700300）
