中国动物检疫2026，Vol.43Issue(8)：13-23,11.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1005-944X.2026.08.003
布鲁氏菌病通过活畜(肉牛/羊)调运传入千阳县的定量风险评估
Quantitative Risk Assessment of Brucellosis Introduction into Qianyang County via Live Animal(Beef Cattle/Sheep)Movements
薛嘉 1史冰君 1贾培龙 1沈朝建 2赵合平 1杨文欢 1吕烨 3王盈盈 4朱海鹏 5刘婧 6郭忠义 7王青杰 1焦韵洁1
作者信息
- 1. 陕西省动物疫病预防控制中心,陕西 西安 710016
- 2. 中国动物卫生与流行病学中心,山东 青岛 266032
- 3. 千阳县动物疫病预防控制中心,陕西千阳 721100
- 4. 宝鸡市畜牧兽医中心,陕西 宝鸡 721000
- 5. 铜川市动物疫病预防控制中心,陕西 铜川 727031
- 6. 铜川市王益区动物疫病预防控制中心,陕西 铜川 727000
- 7. 陕西省动物卫生与屠宰管理站,陕西 西安 710016
- 折叠
摘要
Abstract
In order to evaluate the risk of brucellosis introduction into Qianyang County,a quantitative risk assessment was performed,in which a scenario tree was constructed to illustrate the introduction pathways,a stochastic risk model was developed,relevant parameters were simulated using@Risk,and a sensitivity analysis of the results was subsequently conducted.The results showed that the probability of brucellosis introduction via a single live animal was 0.05%(95%CI:0.03%-0.08%),and that via one batch was 2.38%(95%CI:0.63%-4.90%).The probability that at least one infected animal would be introduced annually was 67.01%(95%CI:19.40%-94.10%).Sensitivity analysis revealed that the key risk factors included batch size and the number of animals moved,the probability of sourcing from infected premises,and the probability of animals entering the production system without origin quarantine,whereas the registration rate for origin quarantine was identified as the critical protective factor.In conclusion,the risk of brucellosis introduction could be effectively mitigated by controlling the sources and frequency of animal movements,enforcing origin quarantine,and improving the access and audit systems for live animals.Accordingly,it was recommended to reduce the frequency of animal movements or adopt a centralized introduction system,supplemented by comprehensive measures including public awareness campaigns,reporting upon arrival,and routine monitoring.关键词
布鲁氏菌病/定量风险评估/传入风险/活畜调运/情景树模型Key words
brucellosis/quantitative risk assessment/live animal movement/scenario tree model分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
薛嘉,史冰君,贾培龙,沈朝建,赵合平,杨文欢,吕烨,王盈盈,朱海鹏,刘婧,郭忠义,王青杰,焦韵洁..布鲁氏菌病通过活畜(肉牛/羊)调运传入千阳县的定量风险评估[J].中国动物检疫,2026,43(8):13-23,11.
